Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FNUS74 KLIX 251240
FWSLIX

Spot Forecast for Cavity Fire...USFWS
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
740 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

We can be reached at (985) 649-0357 if you have questions or concerns
with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A surface low currently near the Yucatan coast will
likely move into the lower Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. This
low should affect the north central gulf region late this weekend
into early next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Dewpoint............70.
Heat index..........90.
Wind (20 ft).......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                   near thunderstorms.
Mixing height (m)...335 meters AGL increasing to 945-1250 meters
                    AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest around 1 meters/second shifting to
                    the southeast around 3 meters/second late in
                    the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Rainfall amount.....0.25 inches.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 7 mph late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  78  71  73  75  78  79  79  80  78
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
Temp............76  80  83  85  85  85  84  84  83  83
Dewpoint........71  71  71  71  70  70  70  71  71  71
RH..............85  75  68  65  61  62  62  65  67  68
Heat index (F)..76  80  88  90  90  89  89  88  88  87
20 FT wind dir..WNW WSW SW  SSW S   SSE SSE SSE S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.                4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd dir.WNW WSW SW  SSW S   SSE SSE SSE S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.    2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SSW SSW SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SSE SSE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   7   7
Trans wind dir..SSW SSW SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SSE SSE
Trans spd (m/s).1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............71.
Heat index..........86.
Wind (20 ft).......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                   near thunderstorms.
Mixing height (m)...396-975 meters AGL decreasing to 305 meters AGL
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 2 to 3 meters/second.
LVORI...............5.
Rainfall amount.....0.06 inches.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  73  75  77  80  80  79  78  78  77  77  79
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............82  81  80  78  77  76  75  75  74  74  73  73
Dewpoint........72  71  71  71  71  71  71  70  71  71  71  71
RH..............72  73  76  79  82  85  86  86  90  90  91  93
Heat index (F)..86  85  80  78  77  76  75  75  74  74  73  73
20 FT wind dir..S   SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW S   SSE ESE E
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   6
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW S   SSE ESE E
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
Mix hgt (km)....1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SSE S   S   S   SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   5   5
Trans wind dir..SSE S   S   S   SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Dewpoint............71.
Heat index..........91.
Wind (20 ft).......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph early in
                   the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                   near thunderstorms.
Mixing height (m)...305-366 meters AGL increasing to 975-1341
                    meters AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 3 meters/second.
LVORI...............5.
Rainfall amount.....0.26 inches.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east around 5 mph early in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  85  84  82  80  79  78  77  75  73  70  74
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).40  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90
Temp............73  75  77  81  83  85  85  85  84  84  83  82
Dewpoint........71  71  71  72  72  72  72  72  72  71  71  71
RH..............93  89  82  76  70  67  65  66  67  67  68  70
Heat index (F)..73  75  77  85  89  91  91  90  90  89  88  87
20 FT wind dir..NE  NNE NNE NE  NE  ENE E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE  NNE NNE NE  NE  ENE E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SSW SSW SSW SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
Trans wind dir..SW  SSW SSW SSW SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE S   S
Trans spd (m/s).2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$

1) Fog is not expected tonight.

2) Winds will be very light today and will be quite variable. There is a
time when winds should become steady out of the south to southeast between
noon and 2pm but then lull to light and variable once again afterwards.

3) Now through the remainder of the day. Most will be nearby but a few will
be onsite. Moderate frequency is expected.

Forecaster...NWS NEW ORLEANS
Requested by...Chris Le Rouge
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810607.2/LIX
.DELDT 05/25/18
.EMAIL chris_lerouge@fws.gov


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