353
FNUS72 KMHX 131336
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for KA...USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains the dominant weather maker with light winds
limiting any fire weather concerns over the burn area today. Min
RH`s this afternoon will bottom out at 40-45%. Winds inc through
the morning and peak this afternoon out of the SE with gusts up to
around 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 57614 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 69.
Stability class.....1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  37  46  63  71  73  76  78
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  75  77  77  77  77  77  76
RH..............55  48  45  43  45  45  47  48
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   7   8   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.        14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   8   9   10  12  12  14  15
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............34  38  46  57  66  61  69  66
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.26  31  38  49  57  52  58  55

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers
                    overnight. Chance of showers after 3 am.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 5060 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 8.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  79  79  76  71  69  72  77  80  81  83  84
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  73  72  71  69  68  67  67  67  67  67  67
RH..............52  57  63  68  74  79  81  82  82  82  82  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  12  12  13  13  12  14  13  13  12  13  13
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............47  8   8   8   8   8   9   8   8   8   8   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.38  7   5   6   6   5   7   7   8   7   8   9

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of showers early in the morning,
                    then showers likely early in the morning.
                    Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................1 until 0800, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 16
                    mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing Height.......Max 3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph increasing to 24 to 26 mph
                    late in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Max 80270 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 64.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.87 to 30.01 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........85     89     89     90     92     92
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
LAL.............1      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............67     66     69     73     75     75
RH..............84     90     84     79     76     76
20 ft wind......S 6    S 8    S 11   S 13   S 15   S 16
20 ft wind gust.       14     18     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1300   2800   3000   1900   2100
Transport wind..S 14   S 16   S 23   S 26   S 25   S 26
LVORI...........4      4      4      3      3      3
ADI.............9      26     53     64     47     52
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11     20     65     80     47     55
Sfc pres (in)...29.99  30.01  30.00  29.97  29.94  29.90

$$
Forecaster...Lonka
Requested by...Barrett Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413953.0/MHX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL norton.baker@usmc.mil