Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 220924
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Box Creek...USFS BTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
324 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm, with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible over the next couple of days. Except for winds near
thunderstorms, light, terrain driven surface winds are expected
today and Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds are expected Wednesday.
A wetting rain is not likely over the next week.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...LaVoie

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent) with very
                    isolated thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....76-79.
Min humidity........25-28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridge top winds.....Southeast to east around 5 mph becoming
                    southwest 5-10 mph after noon.
LAL.................1 until 1pm, then 2.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200 FT AGL until 0900. 11700 ft AGL after 1200.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph shifting to the west 10 mph
                    after noon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to excellent.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  12  13  14  15  16  17  22  27  32  37  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............52  54  59  63  67  70  73  75  77  77  77  77
RH..............71  69  60  54  47  42  37  32  28  29  28  28
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   4   3   3   3   2   3   4   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5                       5   8   8   8   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 12  12  12  12  12  12
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10000   0   0   8   8   8   83  83  83  92  92  92

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) with very
                    isolated thunderstorms in the early evening,
                    then mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....49-52.
Max humidity........72-75 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near any thunderstorms.
Ridge top winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the east in the
                    late evening and overnight.
LAL.................2 until 7 PM then 1.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL until 2400, then 200 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5-10 mph shifting to the east in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to poor by 8 PM.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........47  47  47  47  10  23  33  30  25  22  23  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  74  70  65  61  58  56  55  53  52  51  50
RH..............29  29  35  44  53  60  63  66  68  72  73  75
20 FT wind dir..W   S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   3   2   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.                5   5   5   5   8   8   8   5
Mix hgt (kft)...8.7 8.7 8.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100052  52  52  1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200 FT AGL until 0900. 12400 ft AGL after 1200.
Transport winds.....East to southeast 5-10 mph becoming southwest
                    5 to 15 mph by noon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   14  10  25  26  26  32  35  40  43  45  48
Weather cov.....                        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............50  53  62  68  71  74  76  78  78  79  79  79
RH..............73  67  53  45  41  36  31  29  28  27  26  26
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   1   1   1   2   3   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.                                5   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 11  11  11  12  12  12
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   7   7   7   10  10  10  14  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10000   0   0   7   7   7   101 101 101 149 149 149

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Lows in the lower 50s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10-15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Winds generally less
than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...LaVoie
Requested by...Jacob Henrie
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1912491.2/RIW
.DELDT 07/22/19
.EMAIL jacob.henrie@usda.gov


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