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980
FXUS62 KCAE 041739
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek,
with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this morning
across the western Midlands and CSRA with another area
currently developing in the eastern Midlands. This is in
response to the short wave moving through the region with
another short wave moving through the area later today and
tonight. Although there is ample instability for thunderstorms
the cloud cover is limiting heating keeping much of the
convection limited in vertical development and thus more showers
than thunderstorms. Rainfall efficiency has been impressive so
far with rates between 2 and 2.5 inches per hour and with pwat
values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches through tonight expect
this to continue. Will be monitoring several areas across the
CSRA and western Midlands as up to 2.5 inches of rainfall has
already fallen. Will also be monitoring the developing
thunderstorms and rainfall rates in the eastern Midlands for any
hydro related issues. High temperatures this afternoon will
range from the mid 70s in the western Midlands and CSRA to the
upper 70s to around 80 in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday and Sunday night: An upper shortwave is forecast to
continue trekking eastward through the day Sunday and is
expected to be offshore by Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure offshore is expected to drift eastward, but still aid
in keeping plenty of moisture in the area, with PWAT values
around 1.5". A relative low in shower and thunderstorm activity
is forecast due to the shortwave passing to our east. However,
a weaker shortwave is anticipated to move through the region,
resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorms, particularly in
the afternoon. With weaker support, we`re not expecting the
activity to be as widespread as today or Monday. Temperatures
are expected to be near average once again during the day, but
relatively warm overnight.

Monday and Monday night: Another shortwave is forecast to move
across the area on Monday. This shortwave looks to be a bit more
pronounced, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity for the day, especially in the afternoon and evening.
The upper air dynamics are anticipated to be similar to today,
limiting the severe threat. PWATs are anticipated to increase
some again, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall again.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper shortwave is expected to move out of the area Tuesday,
taking the precipitation along with it. That said some scattered
showers are possible during the morning before they exit the
area. Broad ridging then builds back over the area, which will
aid in a midweek warm up. Temperatures are forecast to warm to
well above average by Wednesday and Thursday. A larger scale
trough is anticipated to move toward and through the region for
the end of the week, bringing a cold front along with it. Model
guidance does differ in the timing of its passage, which would
affect how warm we get on Friday. Regardless of the timing,
chances of precipitation returns with this system.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Variable conditions in showers and thunderstorms with restrictions
likely for much of the TAF period.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have mainly been west of the
terminals this morning and are now developing across the entire
area. Have update the TAFs to include the developing convective
activity through the evening hours. Cigs with the showers and
thunderstorms will lower to 1 to 1.5 kft with vsbys lowering to
1 to 2SM as showers have been efficient rain producers with
rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour. Convection will
diminish early tonight however with high amounts of low level
moisture expect stratus and fog to continue through the end of
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$