Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
000
FXUS62 KCAE 161044
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
644 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected with well above normal temperatures.
A weak area of low pressure will bring a chance for showers
Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the
region Sunday night and will user in cooler and drier air
through early next week. Below normal temperatures Monday night
through Tuesday. Dry weather and warmer temperatures follow
during the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is moving into the area this morning and is
expected to get hung up over the forecast area through today
which will limit any cold advection over the area behind the
front. Zonal flow aloft with water vapor satellite imagery
indicating drier air is moving into the area in the mid and
upper levels, although likely will keep low level moisture in
place through the day. HREF mean indicates PWATs drop below an
inch limiting any rainfall potential with a mix of sun and
clouds. Highs remain above average with not much of an airmass
change with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Strengthening
low level jet tonight and high clouds returning to the area will
keep lows mild, even as the cold front pushes east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Deep positively tilted upper trough over eastern Canada will
shift east and extend southwest through the Ohio Valley into the
mid Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. The upper flow over the
Carolinas and Georgia will shift to southwest. The Canadian
cold front will be in the Carolina Mountains early in the day.
Mid and high level clouds will increase through the morning into
the afternoon. Low-levels will be relatively dry in the
morning and overall moisture flux will be limited somewhat in
the west CWA as low level flow shifts to westerly. Precipitable
water highest in the southeast Midlands and CSRA around 1.4
inches by late in the day into the evening. Short wave trough
will be moving through the area in southwest flow aloft will
trigger a few scattered showers. The models are focusing the
bulk of the showers in the southeast Midlands/CSRA late in the
day into the evening as the cold front moves southeast toward
the area. The front is expected to move through central SC
around Midnight Monday and showers will be pushing toward the
coastal plain. One last day of above normal temps with highs in
the low to mid 70s. Cold advection with some gusty winds behind
the frontal passage. Lows in the low 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Amplified positively tilted upper trough moving through the
eastern CONUS Monday and Monday night. At the surface, pressure
ridge over the Midwest will be building southeast. The pressure
gradient will tighten during the afternoon into the evening so
gusty winds to around 25 mph possible. Strong short wave moves
through Monday evening but moisture quite limited. Cold
advection increases behind the trough. The surface ridge is to
the west Tuesday morning but gradient relaxing. The NBM
guidance has low temps Tuesday morning around freezing with
highest probabilities < 32 across the western and northern
Midlands.
Dry air mass dominates through midweek. There is a front moving
southeast into the area Wednesday but weakens as upper heights
rise a bit. Air mass appears to modify with above normal max temps
Wed/Thu. Still cool mornings. Moisture increasing late in the
week as a low pressure system moves east from the Plains. Chance
of showers by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While there was patchy fog around the area this morning, it
never really materialized at the terminals. Expect VFR
conditions through the TAF period with a bit of low level
moisture leading to clouds developing, although ceilings are
expected to be 4kft through the afternoon. Winds will be out of
the west this morning and may shift more northerly, especially
out of Columbia but should remain around 5 knots. Winds increase
slightly tonight with a strengthening low level jet as drier air
moves into the low levels leading to just some high clouds over
the terminals.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of showers and associated
restrictions Sunday night/early Monday morning, mainly across
the southernmost TAF sites DNL/AGS/OGB. Breezy conditions
possible Monday afternoon/evening. No significant impacts to
aviation expected Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$