Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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593 FXUS62 KCAE 010050 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 850 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A shortwave trough aloft will push through the area Tuesday and bring scattered showers-storms in the afternoon and evening. Expect drier, warmer weather for Thursday and Friday with highs back in the mid to upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the weekend as low level moisture increases. There will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the long term with above normal temperatures favored. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Last of the convection has moved south and east of the CWA. Folks can still probably see a little lightning if they look to the southeast, but that should be winding down shortly. Will still have some patchy showers that should linger around overnight as the upper disturbance passes across, but they won`t drop much in the way of precipitation. Temperatures will gradually cool overnight to lows within a few degrees of 60 by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge will build into the Southeast on Wednesday. Drier air will also move into the area from the west with PWAT values around 1 inch. Expect isolated to scattered showers along the coastal plain and into the eastern Midlands where low level moisture is higher. The severe weather threat is low given the dry air aloft hindering growth and warmer temps aloft. A downslope component to the wind fields will help push temps back above average, in the mid to upper 80s. As we move into Thursday, broad ridging will deepen across the SE CONUS and the ridge axis will set up nearly directly overhead. So while the dry northwest flow will weaken, general subsidence will continue and skies will remain mostly clear again Thursday. Thursday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. As surface high pressure strengthens offshore, surface winds will turn more out of the east in the afternoon and allow dew points to push back into the 60`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The WPC cluster analysis page shows that most ensemble members keep broad ridging in place through the long term, however not as amplified as Thursday and Friday. This will open up the synoptic pattern to a series of weak shortwaves sliding to our northwest starting this weekend through the end of the period. Ensembles generally favor an increase in atmospheric moisture over the weekend with PWAT values around the 90th percentile. This pattern of shortwaves riding over broad ridging and above normal PWATs favor at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day of the long term with highest PoPs over the weekend when atmospheric moisture is expected to be highest. Thunderstorms in general will be favored during the afternoon hours but could fall outside the typical diurnal period if shortwave troughs cross the region outside of peak heating. Above average temperatures are likely through much of the long term. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Current radar loops indicate a band of SCT SHRA/TSRA has pushed to the south and east of our terminals, and is moving to the east. Still some possibility of isolated showers through early tonight ahead of a potent upper shortwave. Will handle the threat with VCSH for now. Clearing of mid/upper cloud cover late tonight combined with moist low levels and light winds, will set the stage for restrictions in fog and/or stratus. Will expect IFR to MVFR conditions. After morning fog/stratus dissipates, VFR expected Wednesday. Winds are expected to shift to light NW behind a weak surface trough. Slightly drier air, NVA, and rising upper heights expected to preclude convection across our forecast area Wednesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some late night/early morning fog/ stratus possible at AGS/OGB Wed/Thu nights. Increasing moisture, some upper energy, and a surface boundary expected to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, Fri thru Sun. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...