Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161835
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge along the Gulf Coast will direct a dry westerly
flow into the forecast area through Wednesday. A cold front
with little moisture will move through the area Thursday.
Ridging will extend into the area Friday and Saturday. Moisture
will increase in an onshore flow and ahead of approaching low
pressure Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold air advection continues across SC through tonight with any
associated cumulus clouds diminishing after sunset. Breezy west
surface winds continue this afternoon...tapering as low level
jet decouples from surface wind. Winds will stay up some in the
7-10 mph range overnight. Winds overnight and lower dewpoints
should hamper any frost formation for most of the
area. Couldn`t completely rule out a few lower lying areas
seeing patchy frost closer to the upstate. Will leave mention of
frost out as confidence for any formation is low. Lake Wind
Advisory for area lakes continues into mid evening when it will
be allowed to expire. Skies will be clear overnight. Highs will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon with lows
tonight 35 to 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridging along the Gulf Coast will dominate and maintain
a dry westerly flow into the forecast area through Wednesday.
Strong mixing and the pressure gradient north of the ridge will
help cause breezy conditions during the days. The GFS and NAM
Bufkit momentum transfer tool suggests gusts 25 to 30 mph during
the afternoons. Lake Wind advisories may be needed.

The models and pattern support little moisture associated with a
cold front Thursday. Further drying will occur behind the front
Thursday night.

We followed the guidance consensus for the high temperature
forecast and leaned toward the higher low temperature guidance
because of some mixing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will persist Friday and Saturday with upper-
level ridging moving into the area along with surface ridging.
The models indicate a moisture increase Sunday associated with
an onshore flow and area of low pressure approaching from the
west. Moisture may be deep Sunday night and Monday with the low
in the region. There may be strong upper lift and instability in
a difluent pattern ahead of an upper low. However, surface-
based instability may remain lacking because for now both the
GFS and ECMWF show the surface low tracking south of the
forecast area with a diminished severe thunderstorm threat
locally.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the period as high pressure
brings west to northwest flow over the area. Pressure gradient
between a departing low pressure system and high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico will hold strong and gusty west winds 10 to
20 kts with gust 25 to 30 kts across the TAF sites this
afternoon. Low level jet uncouples with surface and winds will
begin to diminish after 17/00Z. Skies will clear after sunset
as drier air overspreads the region and winds shift to the
northwest. Low level jet mixes down again tomorrow with west to
northwest surface winds picking back up to 15 or 20 knots by
17/16z

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong and gusty winds expected
through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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