Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 221807
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
207 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will overspread the region tonight as a low pressure
system approaches from the Deep South. Widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms are expected tonight, becoming scattered
Saturday as the upper low moves over the area. Breezy conditions
possible Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.
Dry high pressure will build over the area Sunday through
Monday. A cold front will move through the area midweek with a
chance of showers. Temperatures below normal Sunday but warming
to seasonable levels through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed upper level low over Louisiana this afternoon is moving
slowly to the east. Weak surface low pressure developing in the
northern Gulf of Mexico. A pressure ridge has been extending
into the area from coastal VA/Delmarva with resulting weak
wedge conditions in the SC Piedmont and west Midlands this
morning. The ridge is weakening across the area as the upper
trough moves east across the Deep South overnight. This is
resulting in warmer temperatures into the central Midlands, now
in the upper 60s while temps near 60 north of CAE. Temperatures
near max as rain develops across the area. So a warm front is
set up across the west Midlands with wedge in the Upstate. Low
level south-easterly moisture flux is now increasing across the
area. A band of showers has developed in the CSRA and this band
will move slowly north through the afternoon. Isentropic lift
will increase this evening as the low to mid level flow shifts
from southeast to south 30-40kt in advance of the surface low
moving northeast across central Ga. Short wave troughs rotating
northeast of the surface low will provide synoptic lift through
the overnight. As the low moves north into NC after Midnight,
the widespread showers may diminish some, but synoptic forcing
ahead of upper low supports likely pops. But think main period
of moderate rain should be in the evening. Embedded
thunderstorms possible with ML CAPE 200-300 j/KG mainly in the
east through the afternoon and early evening, but CAPE overall
limited especially after 00z. Interesting, the 0-1km SR helicity
increases significantly to 200-300 m2/s2 by this evening with
the approach of a 40 kt 850mb jet in the CSRA and southeast
Midlands but CAPE low by that time. So, severe weather not
expected. Little change in temperatures overnight with lows in
the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving upper trough to gradually move through Sat/Sat nt,
while surface low pressure shifts to our NE while intensifying.
Guidance indicating better chance of showers, with enough
instability for possible afternoon thunderstorms as well, over
southern and eastern areas. Breezy conditions possible Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning., A Lake Wind Advisory may be
required. Cooler and drier air will enter the region behind this
system for Sat nt/Sun. Fair and cool Sunday with upper ridging
over the east coast and surface high pressure building into New
England and ridging down the eastern seaboard. If ideal
radiational cooling conditions set up, some risk of frost,
especially northern areas, late Sunday night/early Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure ridge to remain Monday. Upper and surface ridge
axes to shift offshore Tuesday, with a front approaching from
the west. Mean upper trough to develop over the central CONUS
with SW flow aloft over our region, leading to slow frontal
movement. Guidance indicating a chance of precipitation late
Tuesday through Thursday, with upper trough pushing to our east
by Thu nt/Friday, with drier air moving in.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions have become VFR across the area early this afternoon,
however restrictions will develop by around 21z and continue
through the period.

High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will extend
into the western Carolinas. Weak low pressure is moving
northeast from the Gulf of Mexico toward the area. The low will
move across the region overnight. Widespread showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms are expected through the overnight then
becoming scattered Saturday morning after 12z. A band of mainly
light showers is moving across the area at the moment. Showers
will increase into the evening. Ceilings expected to mainly IFR
by around 00z Saturday and remain low overnight. Visibility will
be reduced in heavier rain and patchy fog. Ceilings may improve
after 15z Saturday. Winds will shift from east to south
overnight and may be briefly gusty early this evening around
00z. Winds will shift to northwest Saturday as the low pressure
system moves to the northeast of the Carolinas.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some restrictions possible
Saturday afternoon. No significant impacts to aviation expected
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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