Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 201443
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1043 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will remain high through early next week associated with a
southerly flow on the backside of high pressure centered well off
the East Coast. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure ridging into the region from the western Atlantic
will continue today. Southerly flow will continue to promote
deep moisture across the forecast area. Model precipitable
water values during the afternoon are around 1.6 to 1.9 inches
with the highest values east. Air mass will be moderately
unstable this afternoon. A weak short wave trigger may lift
northwest across area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected. The short range models appear to focus convection in
the southeast Midlands and CSRA along convergence zone. Other
showers appear possible in the Piedmont trough. The severe
threat appears limited. Cannot rule out heavy downpours in some
thunderstorms given abundant moisture. High temperatures are
forecast in the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Convection should diminish during the evening with at most
isolated showers overnight. Persistence forecast for overnight
min temperatures in the upper 60s.

A weak upper trough will remain just off to the west of the
region, with the center of upper ridge off the coast, into the
early part of this upcoming week. This keeps a moist southerly
flow pattern across the cwa. Expecting the continuation of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves moving around
the low to the west may enhance some of the activity, but for
the most part expecting the rainfall to be scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models begin building a ridge across the middle of the US
through mid-week, helping to deepen a trough across the eastern
portions of the Country. A weak front should stall out across
the norther cwa on Thursday before moving back north. Expect the
region to remain in a moist airmass through the period, with
expected diurnal showers and storms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions this morning should improve to VFR with heating
and mixing by around 16Z. Isolated to scattered convection
possible mainly during the afternoon hours, but expected
coverage too low to include in terminal forecasts at this time.
Restrictions in stratus and fog will be possible again early
Monday morning, but confidence is too low to include at this
time. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Unsettled weather will continue
with periods of late night and morning IFR to MVFR ceilings and
fog and mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
as high moisture remains over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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