214
FXUS62 KCAE 031841
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
241 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active
weather for the weekend through early next week with showers
and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect
well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures continue warming through the low to mid 80s across
the forecast area with cumulus also developing as weak southeast
to southerly flow pushes moisture into the area. WSR-88D imagery
shows showers along the western periphery of the forecast area
with a few moving into the northern CSRA. Although there is
moisture and instability across the area flow across the area is
weak and a trigger mechanism is lacking. As such expect the
showers to continue developing along with a few thunderstorms
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
With sunset and loss of heating convection will diminish however
during the early morning and sunrise hours the chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase as a short wave with
divergence aloft moves into the area. Shower and thunderstorms
chance at daybreak will be around 40 percent in the western
Midlands through central CSRA quickly tapering to less than 14
percent in the eastern Midlands. High temperatures this
afternoon will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows
tonight in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding
eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the
next couple of days. A series of embedded shortwaves are
forecast to move over the region. At the surface, high pressure
off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast
surface winds across the forecast area. As a result of this
combination, PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches,
which is near the climatological top of moisture for this time
of year. With this amount of moisture available, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area
Saturday and Sunday, with peak coverage in the afternoons.
With a lack of low level forcing mechanism, most of the activity
is likely to be driven by the passing shortwaves. With the
ridging aloft, instability and shear are limited, especially
shear. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not really expected.

With the widespread cloud cover and scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity, daytime temperatures are forecast to be
closer to average for this time of year compared to the past
couple of days. The increased moisture is expected to keep
temperatures several degrees above average each night.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A persistent pattern of broad ridging, with passing shortwaves
over the Southeast is expected to bring a continued summer-like
pattern to the region. This should lead to nearly daily shower
and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but coverage is
anticipated to steadily decline after Monday. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually increase due to the stagnant pattern
aloft, with highs mid to late week in the lower to mid 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions into the early morning then increasing potential
for restrictions.

Southeast to southerly flow continues to push moisture into the
region with a few showers currently west of the terminals. Over
the next couple of hours expect the showers to near AGS/DNL with
VCSH beginning around 22z then 04/00z for CAE/CUB. With little
dynamic support for the convection confidence is too low to
include timing into any terminal. With daybreak additional
moisture will move into the terminals as flow turns southerly
and cigs begin lowering in response to increasing instability.
With the increasing clouds tonight fog is not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible through the period.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday
and Monday with decreasing chances Tuesday onward.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$