713
FNUS73 KARX 121246
FWSARX

Spot Forecast for Iron Horse Prairie SNA...Minnesota DNR
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (608) 784-8292 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...It will be mostly sunny today. There will be scattered
showers and storms after 4 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the mid-20s. Winds will be southwest
at ignition and then shift to the west. Wind speeds will 10 to 20 mph.
Higher in the vicinity of showers and storms. Smoke dispersion will be
fair at ignition and then become excellent by late morning.

It will be mostly sunny on Monday. High temperatures will be in the
lower 70s with afternoon humidities in the lower to mid-30s. North winds
8 to 10 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 11 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 11 to 17 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2000 ft AGL
                    increasing to 4900 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon, then increasing to 9700 ft AGL early
                    in the afternoon increasing to 10300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon decreasing to 7500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /212900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (164200 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  15  8   6   5   16  36  37  45
Weather cov.....                            SCH CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  30
Temp............64  71  75  79  82  83  83  84  82
RH..............60  51  45  35  28  25  24  24  26
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  12  13  13  15  17  17  16  15
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  19  20  20  20  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.5 2.0 4.9 8.1 9.7 10  9.6 7.5
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.18  20  18  21  24  25  26  26  25
Haines index....6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100014  26  31  88  169 213 236 222 164

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent late in the
                    evening.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 8 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph shifting to the north around
                    13 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (32900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........58     71     73     63     42     51
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30     30     20     10     0      0
Temp............80     71     65     61     57     53
RH..............31     49     63     72     77     74
20 ft wind......W 12   W 9    SW 8   NW 7   NW 7   N 7
20 ft wind gust.15     14     12     12     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   600    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 20   SW 14  W 15   W 12   NW 10  N 12
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100033     7      6      5      5      5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 10 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........45     38     52     56     46     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10
RH..............69     64     53     43     36     35
20 ft wind......N 8    NE 8   NE 9   N 9    N 9    N 10
20 ft wind gust.12     12     13     13     14     14

$$
Forecaster...JSB
Requested by...Brad Bolduan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413816.0/ARX
.DELDT 05/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brad.bolduan@state.mn.us