405
FXUS61 KRNK 130510
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
110 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the coast by Monday evening
allowing moisture to return in advance of a complex storm system
exiting the Central Plains. This will result in unsettled
weather Monday night through Wednesday with periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Drier weather returns Thursday before
another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms by
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Slowed the arrival of showers in northwest NC Monday afternoon.

Confidence is lower than normal for low temperatures tonight,
as high cloudiness across the south central in southeast U.S.
along an active southern jetstream will spill over the area late
tonight and early Monday morning. With dry air and diminishing
winds this evening, temperatures should fall rapidly early
tonight, but will likely slow a few hours before dawn Monday.
Generally leaned toward the cooler guidance for lows considering
the magnitude of dry air in place.

There is generally good agreement in ensembles and CAMs that
weak upper level shortwave energy undercuts the departing upper
level ridge keeping mostly cloudy skies in place, but with
increasing 1000- 850mb thicknesses and breaks in the cloud cover
temperatures should still be able to warm a few degrees above
Sunday`s high temperatures.

Where confidence is lowest in tomorrow`s forecast is the timing
of light showers in northwest NC for late tomorrow afternoon or
tomorrow evening, with the SREF plumes showing a larger than
normal spread of POPs/dew points Monday afternoon/evening. CAMs
also show a wide range of outcomes for when precipitation
arrives. A majority of the SREF ensemble members in BUFKIT
retain a healthy amount of low level dry air into the afternoon
on Monday, so leaned toward the slower arrival time of precip
and reduced POPs across the NW NC mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather during Tuesday and
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

Clouds will increase on Monday night as a low pressure system
approaches the central Mississippi River Valley. Showers will reach
the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia overnight and
spread across the rest of the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday. Instability
will increase from the west to spark thunderstorms in the mountains
by Tuesday afternoon. The low pressure system will cross over the
Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday to keep conditions unsettled with
more showers and thunderstorms. Some drier air may arrive by
Wednesday night to provide lower chances of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for a brief reprieve on Thursday, but more
showers and thunderstorms are possible to end the week.

With a low pressure system moving offshore on Thursday, chances of
rain will become more limited. However, another low pressure system
should approach the Ohio River Valley by Friday. Although the models
continue to struggle with timing discrepancies for this next system,
it appears that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will rise
again by Friday and linger into Saturday. Drier air may return by
Sunday to allow the rain chances to decrease. Overall, temperatures
throughout this forecast period will stay near or slightly above
normal for the middle of May.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM EDT Monday...

Going to be VFR through 06z/Tue. Anticipate increasing high
clouds today, lowering to a mid deck by the end of the period.
Could see some low end VFR ceilings possibly getting toward
BCB/DAN but most of the sub-VFR will be after 06z/Tue. A
light/calm wind this morning will be coming from the south at
5-10kts by 15-17z Monday.

High confidence this forecast period.

 Extended Aviation Outlook...

Rain showers and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region late Monday night through midweek, through sub-VFR
will not occur all the time. Thursday should return to VFR most
areas with some lingering MVFR possible in the mountains. More
sub- VFR likely Friday with another storm system with
showers/storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PH/WP
NEAR TERM...PH/RCS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...WP