594
FXUS63 KABR 091744 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are looking likely over the weekend,
  along with drier conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Made some adjustments to sky cover based on satellite trends.
Mostly sunny across much of the CWA currently, except along the
I-90 corridor. With daytime heating this afternoon, anticipate
cumulus buildup, with perhaps a few stray showers. Will maintain
small PoPs over the southwest CWA where models hint at better
potential. Elsewhere, chances are very slim. Current high temps
and winds appear on track and little changes needed there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A trailing upper trough slowly exits today. The shortwave energy
within the trough will provide enough instability with daytime
heating to generate some showers across central SD, mainly this
afternoon. By this evening expect drier conditions to take hold
through Friday. Northwest flow on Friday will result in breezy
conditions across the area with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

Temperatures will be seasonable today and tomorrow with highs around
or just slightly below normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday evening we still have a little bit of energy over far eastern
SD and west central MN from the shortwave that is exiting the
region. It will continue to move east through the overnight hours
and leave us in a northwest flow pattern. There looks to be a
shortwave on Monday that will start the week off with some chances
for rain. Early Wednesday morning a low starts to enter and
continues the rain chances through the end of the period

Starting Monday, we have 15-30% PoPs which will remain the base
through the end of the period. The best chance for rain looks to be
just ahead of the Wednesday low, so Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight hours, with 30-50% PoPs. Rain amounts at the moment range
between a few hundredths for areas around and west of the Missouri
River to a few tenths around and east of the James River. Right now,
it doesn`t look terribly likely that storms will develop, and if
they do, it is unlikely that they will become severe. This is still
5 days out, so things could change.

For the first half of the long term, temperatures will be increasing
into the upper 70s to low 80s. Once the shortwave moves through
Monday, temperatures will drop a little Tuesday (into the low to mid
70s) and a little more on Wednesday (into the upper 60s to low 70s),
but then start to recover again Thursday. Overall, winds look to
remain around normal, but will be switching directions throughout
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT