581
FXUS64 KAMA 071122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Fire weather continues to highlight the short term forecast.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast again
today for the central and western Panhandles. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible across the southwest on Wednesday.
Highs both today and Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s
to upper 80s.

Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the Panhandles
early this morning. Winds out of the west are continuing this
morning which is continuing to bring dry air in across the area.
Dew points at the time of this writing have only increased into
the mid to upper teens for most areas with some locations
(portions of the OK Panhandle and the eastern TX Panhandle) having
dew points in the 20s to low 30s. With that being said, very poor
relative humidity recovery is expected this morning for the
region.

Heading into the daytime hours today, zonal flow aloft will
prevail across the forecast area. The surface pressure gradient is
forecast to tighten again across the area by late morning and will
continue into the afternoon hours. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
likely across the central and west this afternoon. With continued
dry air moving in from the west, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will arise once again today (for more fire weather
details, see the Fire Weather discussion below). WAA at H850 is
forecast for today with the temperatures rising into the mid teens
celsius, this would lead to highs in the 80s area wide for this
afternoon. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Cooler highs temperatures are
forecast for Wednesday but will still be in the 70s and 80s as the
airmass behind the front is not all that cold. Breezy winds will
be possible across the southwest and dry conditions will persist,
so elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible for
this area. Otherwise, Wednesday into Wednesday night looks to
remain quiet weather wise with a secondary cold front moving
across the Plains during the overnight hours.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Dry weather will continue Thursday through Friday night as another
upper level low pressure system organizes and centers over the
vicinity of southern Nevada by late Friday afternoon. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms may return to the region Saturday
afternoon through Monday as the aforementioned upper level low
pressure system moves slowly eastward. Precipitation amounts and
areal coverage will depend on how much moisture returns to the
area this weekend into early next week. For now, the NBM slight
chance to low end chance pops look reasonable this far out in time
and were included in the grids for Saturday through Monday. Medium
range models and associated ensembles were in some semblance of
agreement with differences noted in the finer details surrounding
orientation and timing of this next upper level storm system.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Winds will
increase and remain out of the west around 18z with wind gusts of
30 to 40 kts. The winds will eventually slow down after 00z and a
weak front will switch winds to out of the north during the
overnight hours. Clear skies will prevail during this TAF period.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again
today for the central and western Panhandles. Southwest winds
this afternoon are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range with
gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values will once again drop
below 10 percent for most of the area during peak heating today.
These conditions will lead to RFTI values in the 4 to 8 range,
with the higher values across the west. The Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through
the evening hours. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
for the northeastern Texas Panhandle and the eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle.

For Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the southwestern Texas Panhandle due to low relative
humidity values around 10 percent or less and west winds with
gusts up to 30 mph.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                84  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  86  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              82  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  84  48  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               85  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 83  39  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  84  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                85  48  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   85  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              85  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05