656
FXUS64 KHGX 052018
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Flood Watch will expire at 7pm. More below.

Tail end of last night`s disturbance left an east-west boundary
meandering around I-10 that has been the focus for shra/tstm
activity today. This precip, in addition to the cells that are
popping up across northern parts of the CWA (who have become
unstable following some sunshine), should be in the waning stages
this evening as we lose heating.

Tonight, we`re not expecting much in the way of precip, but with
wet ground and light winds, we`ll probably see some patchy fog
development.

On Monday, look for a continued waa regime with se winds off the
Gulf. Guidance shows some ill defined, weak impulses embedded in
the zonal flow aloft moving across northern parts of the CWA
during the day. But nothing of significance is noted on satellite
pix. Moisture levels will be a bit lower tomorrow too with PW`s
~1.5" vs 2" today. As such, one would anticipate some iso-sct
showers and maybe a tstm or two, but overall coverage and intensity
should not be enough to generate new flooding and likely wouldn`t
cause ongoing flooding to get worse. As such, am planning to let
the Flood Watch expire at 7pm.

Despite its expiration...it`s important to remain out of floodwaters,
don`t drive around barricaded roads, and follow recommendations
from your local emergency management officials.   47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday-Thursday looks increasingly hot. Llvl winds transition to
the sw and H85 temps climb to 21-24C. This will essentially cap
the atmosphere and put an end to rain chances. With daytime temps
in the 90s, dewpoints in the 70s and a wet ground...it`ll be
quite uncomfortable outside with heat index values in the 100-104
range. Anyone doing recovery work outside should keep this in mind
and not overdo things.

A cold front will sag southward across the Red River late
Wednesday and into north Tx. It probably won`t be til Thursday
night when it gets a secondary push from high pressure moving down
the Rockies to move all the way through SE Tx. Cannot rule out
some sct tsra ahead of this boundary, but will be highly dependent
on the capping situation at that time.

The front, and increased Gulf moisture moves briefly back inland
early Saturday as a warm front. Flow aloft looks a bit messier
during this time period and suspect we`ll see a return of some
shra/tstm chances ahead of another front penciled in for Saturday
night. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Another round of showers and storms is entering the area this
afternoon. Expect activity to increase across SE Texas with the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. These storms may
produce gusty erratic winds and large hail. VFR CIGs across the
area at present, expect MVFR to mix in there this afternoon as
next round of showers moves in. CIGs overnight will drop to
MVFR/IFR levels with some MVFR VSBYs closer to sunrise. Expect
CIGs to remain at least MVFR through the period with some
improvement near the end of the period.  Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Fetch of moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated
seas for the next several days. Have maintained caution flags for
all waters this evening for winds. Will probably need to be extended
beyond 20nm overnight with seas still hanging around 6ft.
Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks and
streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents
in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation
difficult.

Showers and thunderstorms should taper off this evening with only
slight chances, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow
should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast
Thursday night.  47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The Flood Watch will expire at 7pm CDT Sunday evening. Today`s
showers/storms and the overall heavy rain threat will come to an end
later this evening. Although some scattered showers are possible on
Monday, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding.
Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks), so please
continue to take caution. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out
of the floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that
it is safe.

Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and
Navasota rivers. The following river points are currently at Major
flood stage as of Sunday afternoon:

- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage
- San Jacinto River (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website
and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the
river flooding continues.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  86  73  90 /  30  40  10   0
Houston (IAH)  72  86  75  91 /  20  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  74  81  76  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-300-313.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$