897
FXUS64 KLUB 141104
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The weather is expected to be fairly tranquil today with an outside
chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The closed upper
low currently over Missouri will continue to move farther from the
region today with another closed low moving onshore into southern
California. Short wave ridging between these two lows will move
overhead today which will act to suppress convection that attempts
to develop this afternoon. As the upper low moves onshore on the
southern California coast, surface cyclogenesis will develop from
northeastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle in response
by late in the afternoon. The development of the surface low will
allow low level winds to swing around to the south area wide.
Southeasterly winds off the Caprock will oppose southwesterly
winds mixing to the surface on the caprock forming a weak dryline.
Strong heating on either side of the dryline will lead to a
deeply mixed boundary layer but areas off the caprock will see
more appreciable moisture. A narrow low level theta-e axis will
advect northward into the Rolling Plains. Strong heating and
increased moisture will yield mixed layer instability values
around 1000-1500 J/kg but with -30 to -40 CIN still overhead. Low
level convergence along the dryline will be weak and given the
expected capping and subsidence overhead, isolated convection will
be difficult to initiate. If convection were to develop, storms
would be high based with wide T/Td spreads with the potential to
produce strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Upper shortwave troughing combined with a subtle low-level jet,
among other favorable parameters will lead to the potential for
severe weather on Wednesday. As with yesterday, a somewhat later
start time (evening hours) remains favored as post cold-frontal SE
winds will allow for ample Gulf moisture to be brought into the
area, with some models showing PWATs exceeding one inch. A
significant morning cap (CIN exceeding 500 J/kg in some areas) will
need to be broken though the day. While this is eventually expected
to occur, the LLJ is not overly impressive (~40 kts on most
agressive models) nor is the forcing, however given the
aforementioned moisture, likely PoPs have been retained off the
Caprock Wednesday evening. Main severe threats would include strong
winds and locally heavy rainfall/flooding.

Thursday remains a tricky forecast. ECMWF deterministic went from no
QPF over the forecast area yesterday to a significant outlier on the
12Z run, however as of this writing the 0z looks more in line with
other models, showing QPF totals on the order of 0.2". Low-level
wind agreement is particularly bad as well, with GFS showing lee
cyclogenesis over eastern NM and other models keeping winds aloft
light and variable. Given that moisture will already be present over
the area, the completely dry NAM does not seem very reasonable and
thus higher PoPs will be retained off the Caprock through early
Thursday afternoon with chances continuing area-wide through the
evening. The lack of forcing will further curtail the severe threat
though it cannot completely be ruled out. In any case, forecast
confidence remains low at this point, so stay tuned for further
updates.

What is much more certain is a significant warm up this weekend. A
drier NW flow building in on Friday will quickly end any lingering
showers in the morning. Winds will switch to southwesterly on
Saturday, with a large upper ridge axis moving over the area by
Sunday. Heights will reach around 590 Dm and correspondingly high
temperatures may approach triple-digits across portions of the
southern South/Rolling Plains. Hot and dry conditions look to
continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Isolated storms are
possible late Tuesday afternoon at all TAF sites but coverage will
likely be too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01