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000
FXUS64 KMEG 190813
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A line of showers and storms will slowly diminish early this
morning. Most of the area will experience dry conditions for the
weekend, with the exception of north Mississippi as showers return
Saturday. A brief cool down is expected as a reinforcing cold
front will move through Sunday night with lows in the 40s Sunday
morning and Monday morning. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday
to return seasonable conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A line of storms associated with an upper level trough and
associated cold front is nearly parallel to I-4O as of 3 AM. The
sinking air will aid in the fizzling out of precipitation chances
early this morning. A brief lull in shower activity is expected
Friday afternoon for most of the region. As the low and trough
pull away from the region, very light in coverage and accumulation
rain showers are possible tonight. Slight chance PoPs were
carried as there is low confidence in coverage and how quickly the
dry air behind the frontal boundary will arrive.

A weak open low pressure system will cross Texas as a surface cold
front stalls over north Mississippi. This will bring showers back to
the area, mainly in north Mississippi, due to the downstream
moisture.  After this round of showers, high pressure will gradually
begin to slide in by Sunday to return rainfree conditions.
Probabilities for thunder on Saturday are low as dewpoints are
forecast to be in the low 50s or less.

A reinforcing cold front will push the remaining showers out of the
region by Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures are associated with a
high pressure system as lows Monday morning are forecast to be in
the 40s. Monday will feel much cooler as dry air and brisk northerly
winds will prevail. Temperatures will begin to warm back to near and
above climatology early next week as return flow settles in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A line showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across
northeast AR and the MO Bootheel along a surface cold front. This
convection is expected to gradually decay as it moves into a more
hostile near-storm environment. Confidence is generally low for TS
on station at forecast terminals outside of JBR, but VCTS was
included at MEM (VCSH elsewhere). Winds will shift from the north
as this front passes with low ceilings overspread the area during
the early morning hours. Low clouds will persist through much of
the day before slowly lifting during the late afternoon and
evening hours. IFR probabilities are in the 40-50% range or
higher, especially at MKL/TUP for Friday morning. Winds will
likely be a bit gusty tomorrow, mainly before 18z.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...MJ