330
FXUS62 KMFL 040730
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South Florida
today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with surface
high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best opportunity
for any isolated showers or weak convection with the sea breeze today
and Sunday afternoon.

An upper level disturbance advancing towards and into the Florida
panhandle will open a small weakness in the upper level flow
across the Florida peninsula from Saturday into Saturday night.
This weak upper level disturbance combined with an increase in the
moisture profile between 850 and 700 mb should induce some
slightly greater PoPs during Saturday afternoon into the 20 to 40
percent range. With the continued moderate easterly flow, this
activity will be most favored across the interior/western portions
of South Florida.

Expect for the afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s
along the coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic,
maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow
across the region. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to
late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from
the west.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next
week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity
during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of
the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push
further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers
or storms across Southwest Florida. The PoPs then look to diminish
even more into late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens.

The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the
mid to even upper 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Generally
easterly flow around 8 kts will increase to around 12 kts with
higher gusts after 16Z. KAPF will again see a W-SW wind shift
during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for
marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and
entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers
and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters
and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to
peak in the 13-18 kts range out of the east and likely induce
periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents
along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend.
The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across
the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  74  84  74 /  20  20  40  20
West Kendall     86  71  85  71 /  20  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        86  72  85  73 /  20  20  40  20
Homestead        83  73  84  74 /  20  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  83  74  83  75 /  20  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  83  74  83  74 /  20  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   86  73  86  74 /  20  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  84  72  84  72 /  20  20  40  10
Boca Raton       85  73  85  73 /  20  20  40  20
Naples           88  71  88  71 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17