Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281407
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1007 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Minimal changes to the forecast. Temperatures were slightly
lowered in our northeast Georgia counties due to a band of clouds
moving into the area. These clouds should clear out this
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure from the west builds into the region today, which
will finally push the lingering frontal boundary out of our GA and
eastern FL Big Bend counties later this morning. Showers will
likely continue over the next few hours with conditions clearing
out by mid to late morning. Northerly winds, which may gust up to
20 or 25 mph in areas this afternoon, will usher in cooler air.
Highs for today should peak at or within a few degrees of 70 for
SE AL and SW GA, while FL counties rise in the low to mid 70s.
Tonight, the cool air trend continues with lows falling into the
low to mid 40s for SE AL and SW GA and in the generally in the mid
to upper 40s for FL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

For the start of the short term, cool conditions with morning
lows in the mid 40s as we begin Friday. This will be due to the
likely radiational cooling early Friday morning as we are
expecting clear skies and light to calm winds. Surface high
pressure is expected to drift east-southeast through the day and
the passage of a weak upper level ridge. The ridge is expected to
flatten as we head into Saturday evening, and the surface high
pressure will be centered east of the peninsula. Benign conditions
are expected to prevail, with another night of cool temperatures
in the mid to upper 40s.

Afternoon temperatures during the short term will be gradually
increasing for the weekend. Friday`s highs will range from the low
to upper 70s, with the warmer temperatures south of I-10.
Saturday`s highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Moisture
advection from the Gulf returns Saturday night, allowing for low
temperatures to be a little warmer in the low 50s, and upper 50s
along the coastal regions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The upper level ridging builds up again heading into the
beginning of the work week. Calm and dry conditions are expected
to continue for Monday. An upper level low is forecast to develop
over the central plains late Monday with an associated cold front
at the surface, which will bring our next chances for rain heading
into Tuesday and Wednesday. PoPs peak at around 40-50 percent
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms
possible. Nothing in our region has been highlighted by the
national centers concerning severe or heavy rain, but the Climate
Prediction Center has been noting that we can expect above average
rainfall in the coming week. Afternoon temperatures for the long
term will be increasing into the mid 80s and morning lows will be
warming into the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are forecast now that a front has almost completely
exited the region. There`s some lingering stratus behind it;
however, cigs should stay above restrictions. Outside of that,
look for mainly northerly winds around increase from about 5 to
10kt to about 10 to 15kt with gusts to 20kt possible this
afternoon. Winds should ease around sunset with most sites being
below 5kt for the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across our eastern waters
through this morning. The front associated with this is expected
to exit the region during the morning hours today. Increasing
north winds are expected behind this system, with fresh to strong
breezes expected west of Apalachicola. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for both near and offshore zones as a result through
00z tonight. Boating conditions will start to improve later in the
day with conditions improving through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

After a period of wet weather, high pressure returns to the
region and brings a stretch of dry weather. The main fire weather
concerns will be area wide high dispersions today and Saturday,
with pockets of low dispersions across SE AL and SW GA on Friday.
In addition to dispersions, minRH values of 20 to 40 percent west
of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers are forecast for today and
tomorrow minRH values should range from about 25 to 35 percent,
highest along the FL coast and in the eastern counties of the FL
Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 613 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Recent rainfall has caused rises on several rivers across the
area. Minor flooding will be possible along the Ochlockonee River
at Concord by this weekend. For the Ochlockonee River at
Thomasville, the flood warning has been cancelled, but still
remains in Action Stage. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is
currently forecast to crest near flood stage, but current
observations are tracking slightly below the forecast so
confidence is lower on actually reaching flood stage barring any
changes in releases upstream. Otherwise, several other rivers have
risen into action stage or are forecast to rise into action stage
over the next few days including Bruce Creek, the Withlacoochee
River, Searcy Creek, and the Ochlockonee River further downstream
from Concord. The good news is that after the rain from Wednesday
through Wednesday night, no additional rainfall accumulation is
expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        71  43  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      71  45  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    76  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  50  68  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750-
     752.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery


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