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000
FXUS62 KCHS 240417
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slip down through the region for the
middle part of the week. High pressure builds back through the
region late week through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major changes were made for the midnight update. Lows were
nudged down about 1-2 deg west of US-17 in upper and lower
Charleston Counties and around Bluffton in Beaufort County, SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure will sag into the southern
Georgia/northern Florida region Wednesday but remain in control
of our weather through the day Wednesday. That will keep things
precip- free once again although we may see some late day
increase in cloud cover as a weak surface boundary approaches
from the NW (see below). South to southwesterly low level flow
will continue our warming trend with afternoon highs into the
upper 70s to lower 80s and close to seasonable normals.

Meanwhile, northern stream short-wave energy will be swinging
through New England through the middle part of the week with
modestly lower mid-level heights dipping into the southeast.
Attending surface low will also be tracking up through New
England during this time with the southern tail end of a cold
front and narrow axis of higher PWAT air (just over one inch)
sagging down through the Carolinas and eastern Georgia through
early Thursday. Larger scale forcing along the boundary looks
very minimal and blended model consensus guidance keeps the
forecast area dry Wednesday night into Thursday. That said,
recent high-res guidance (H3R and NamNest) does show a narrow
line of isolated showers dipping down through the northern part
of the forecast area Wednesday night before dissipating. We are
not totally sold that we will actually get any measurable precip
given stubborn dry low level air. But we have opted to
introduce some low end (isolated) pops to the northern portion
of the forecast area...mainly the Charleston "quad-county"
region.

Heading into the latter half of the week, aforementioned
boundary and higher PWAT air may be stalling across the southern
Georgia/northern Florida region as northeasterly flow becomes
re-established across the forecast area. While we cannot
completely rule out a low- end chance of a few showers/sprinkles
either along the moisture axis or coming off the Atlantic,
current plan is to maintain a dry forecast through the latter
half of the week. Temperatures may dip back a few degrees into
the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level flow is looking to become a bit more amplified late
week and through the upcoming weekend with deepening
troughiness developing through the western CONUS and downstream
sharp ridging setting up along much of the east coast. Surface
high pressure will regain a foothold throughout much of the
eastern U.S. and will maintain dry weather through the period.
Temperatures will continue to run near or around normal late
week into the weekend, and further to above normal late weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
24/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 25/06z. Isolated showers could lurk
around both KCHS and KJZI late Tuesday evening, but
probabilities are too low to justify a mention at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered over the coastal waters today
will slide slowly east over the western Atlantic tonight. To the
west, a cold front is expected to reach the southern
Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. This pattern should support
SSW winds across the coastal waters tonight, favoring values
between 10-15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 2-4 ft
tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: South to southwesterly flow is
anticipated Wednesday with a touch of gustiness possible
although winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds. Winds veer northeasterly/easterly for the latter
half of the week, as a weak cold front slips through the region
and stalls to our south. Again, some gustiness is possible
across the coastal waters, especially on Friday, but expected to
remain below SCA criteria. High pressure returns thereafter.

Rip Currents: Winds veer southerly Wednesday. However,
lingering 10 second swell and proximity to the full moon will
keep an elevated risk of rip currents at all beaches through
Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$