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100
FXUS62 KCHS 301933
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
333 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Mid-level troughing will amplify off the East Coast, especially
to our north. Surface High pressure over the Great Lakes region
in the evening will build towards the OH Valley overnight, with
it`s far periphery reaching into the Southeast U.S. This will
yield low dew points for our area. Winds are expected to go
calm this evening and overnight, away from the beaches. The
combination of mostly clear skies, the low dewpoints, and the
calm winds will support strong radiational cooling. We again
went on the low end of the temperature guidance. Lows will
range from the mid to upper 50s far inland, to around 60 degrees
closer to the coast. At the beaches and Downtown Charleston,
warmer ocean temperatures will keep air temperatures from
dropping as much as they could. These locations should expect
temperatures in the upper 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Decaying quasi Omega block pattern across the northern CONUS will be
in place to begin the Short Term period with the eastern trough
progressing across New England and associated stronger short-wave
energy diving off the mid Atlantic. Sharp short-wave ridging will
follow in its wake, building across the southeast CONUS and along
the Atlantic coast through Saturday. Surface high pressure will also
follow in kind, building along the Atlantic coast into Saturday
before drifting into the Atlantic for the latter half of the
weekend.

Lack of any substantial forcing features along with a relatively dry
and stable air mass overhead will lead to quiet conditions through
at least Saturday, and probably Sunday as well...although pop-up
shower chances may nudge upward a touch on Sunday as we start to get
a better moisture return into the region, and there may be some
decaying convection originating in the Gulf Coast to contend with.
Meanwhile, only a minimal amount of thermal profile change is
anticipated through Sunday with daytime highs running in the middle
to upper 80s - warmest in SE Georgia along with surface dewpoints in
the middle 50s to lower 60s through Saturday...inching up a touch on
Sunday. Overall, quite nice for late May/early June.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dampen and
transition off the coast for the early part of next week with a bit
more nebulous flow pattern taking shape across the region through
midweek. But this may open the door for a series of (largely)
convectively induced waves to ripple out of the central/southern
Plains and Gulf region and into/through the southeast and mid
Atlantic. Meanwhile, we do pick up a modest return of warmer and
higher dewpoint air into the region along with a bit more
instability and increased diurnal convection chances; back toward
isolated-scattered chances and in-line with climo PoPs for this time
of year.

Temperatures for the period start out in the middle to upper 80s but
warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the middle and late week
period. Overnight lows will span the 60s...warmer along the
coast.
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.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.
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.MARINE...
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Tonight: High pressure will gradually build in from the north.
Expect relatively light winds in the evening, turning to the NE
and becoming 5-10 kt after midnight. Seas will average 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure initially centered north of
the region will shift east and offshore over the weekend. Atlantic
high pressure will continue to extend over the area through the
middle of next week. Conditions stay below Small Craft Advisory
levels through the period, with winds speeds 15 knots or less and
seas averaging 2-3 feet.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$