-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
586
FXUS62 KCHS 041122
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Based on early morning radar trends, the forecast will feature
SCHC PoPs across portions of the outer GA waters and greater
values over the land zones. In addition, temperatures at
daybreak were 1-3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The
updated forecast will align hourly temperatures to recent
observations. Otherwise, the forecast appeared on track.

The forecast area will remain between a H5 ridge over the western
Atlantic and broad trough over the western Carolinas and northern GA
today. Early this morning, KCLX detected a few weak showers over
inland GA, tracking north. Additional rounds of showers may develop
over inland GA/SC later this morning, highlighted with SCHC to CHC
PoPs for SHRA. Recent runs of the HRRR indicated that at least
isolated showers developing over coastal GA during the pre-dawn
hours, we will continue to monitor. The latest forecast will
indicate dry conditions until mid-day. This afternoon, high
temperatures across the region are forecast to generally range
around 80 degrees. A sea breeze should advance inland early this
afternoon, triggering showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is
expected to remain the greatest across the inland counties.

Thunderstorm activity should gradually decrease this evening as the
sea breeze pushes inland and temperatures begin to cool around
sunset. The sfc pattern is expected to support light SSE winds
through tonight. The light SSE winds combined with mostly cloudy sky
conditions should keep temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast
with mid 60s inland. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east
over the CWA late tonight. Guidance indicates that a band of moisture
convergence will develop from the Gulf Stream northwest across the
South Santee basin late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be featured in the forecast for late tonight over
the SC waters and portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties late
tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will sit off the Southeast coast as passing waves
of shortwave energy ripple across the region through the short term
forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary feature at
the surface. Convection will be a bit active Sunday and Monday with
the presence of a weak shortwave aloft and deeper moisture - noted
by PWATs around 1.5-1.7 inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms
will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but
activity could linger into the late evening with some upper forcing
present. The greatest POPs are focused in southeast South Carolina
and away from the immediate coast each day owing to the
juxtaposition of upper forcing and the inland moving sea breeze.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms will be slightly less Tuesday as
the deeper moisture and remnant shortwave energy moves off the Mid
Atlantic coast.

High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s Sunday,
warming into the mid 80s Monday, then into the upper 80s Tuesday.
Min temperatures both Sunday and Monday are only expected to drop to
the mid/upper 60s, with locations along the beaches and Downtown
Charleston in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the majority of next
week before a cold front approaches late next week. Rainfall chances
are little to none as a ridge rebuilds overhead. This will cause
temperatures to rise into the low/mid 90s through the remainder of
next week, approaching record levels Wednesday and again
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 12z Sunday. A few showers may pass near the KCHS and
KJZI terminals this morning. This afternoon, shower and
thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the
terminals along a sea breeze. Winds should favor a south-
southeast direction during the daylight hours, becoming light
and variable late tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
within isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms through
Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
The surface pattern will yield south-southeast winds between 5-10
kts today and tonight. Wave heights are forecast to favor values
around 2 ft, with 3 ft seas possible beyond 40 nm late tonight.

Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain
relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters. Southerly
winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and
evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will
average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM/NED
MARINE...BRM/NED