342
ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains
Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are
possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan
through Monday early evening.

...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later
today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull
as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to
phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and
central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that
will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS
recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of
moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night.

Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the
day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across
southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing
thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming
mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and
especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an
increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward
development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear
being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some
tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing
cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern
Kansas through the evening into the overnight.

...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan...
Details of Monday`s severe risk will depend on the evolution and
lingering influences from today`s MCS across the central Plains to
lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS
and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward
progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while
related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable
factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable
across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into
parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be
overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but
multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where
moderate destabilization occurs.

...Central Missouri vicinity...
A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central
Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the
area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm
development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale
ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest.
However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and
strong gusts if/where storms develop.

...Southern Florida...
The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and
east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized
scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist
and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of
locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail.

..Guyer.. 05/19/2024

$$