Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly move east of the area today and
Friday. A warm front will move north of the area by Saturday
and temperatures will warm as the flow comes around from the
south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Beautiful day out there today. Minor changes with this forecast
update... the only tweak was with temperatures as temperatures
are creeping up a bit higher than originally forecasted early
this afternoon and most spots will probably reach the low 80s.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
Aside from a swath of mainly thin cirrus which has been
centered from Toledo to Wheeling early this morning, not much
else going on as high pressure was almost overhead. The high
will move slowly east leaving behind an east flow veering
southeast at the surface. The weak gradient will promote lake
breezes off Lake Erie this afternoon but cooling will be limited
to within several miles of the lake shore. highs elsewhere a
few degrees above yesterday, mainly around 80/lower 80s.

There will still be some decent radiational cooling tonight as winds
will be light and dew points relatively low but most areas will tack
on a few degrees from last night with lows in the 50s.

The surface high will be along the East Coast come Friday and
the models have been pretty consistent in bringing a plume of
deeper moisture from the southeast states and up the Ohio Valley
and Appalachians. No real trigger I can find for showers other
than the daytime instability and will have pops around 10 from
Youngstown to Mount Vernon with mostly clear skies elsewhere.
With the ridge aloft overhead on Friday we should be able to
squeeze every degree out of the highs temps, mainly in the lower
and mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A seasonably warm and moist airmass will build northward into the
region this weekend, with diurnally driven showers and storms the
expected flavor of the weekend. Dry conditions are expected Friday
night, but by Saturday, have continued to ramp up pops to peak in
the afternoon/evening, with lulls in the morning hours. Coverage
should be fairly scattered, so have kept pops throughout this period
in the mid/high chance range. No big changes to temperatures through
the period, with highs generally in the low to upper 80s and lows in
the mid 60s. Still favoring the slight warmer MOS guidance vs. raw
model guidance for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will sag southward through the area Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure build across central Ontario, moving into
New England by Wednesday. The boundary will stall out near or just
south of the region and become rather diffuse by Tuesday. Continued
with precip chances Monday, with only slight chance pops across the
south on Tuesday. With the washed out boundary in the area
Wednesday, have continued some low chance pops across the southern
half of the area. After another warm day Monday, with highs in the
low to upper 80s, temps will only be slightly cooler Tuesday into
Wednesday behind the weak front. Highs are still expected to reach
the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A fairly benign and VFR TAF period is ahead with high pressure
overhead and essentially no clouds in the sky. The lake breeze
has moved through KCLE and KERI as expected and a northerly wind
will persist through the rest of today. Otherwise, winds will be
light and variable across the board with no impacts for at least
the next 30 hours.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake through the period as high pressure
slowly builds southeast across the region today through Thursday
night. This will keep winds fairly light and variable into Friday.
Southerly/southwesterly winds will increase Friday into Saturday as
low pressure moves into the western and central Great Lakes, but
will generally be 10 kts or less through the weekend. A weak cold
front will push south across the lake late Monday into Monday night,
with winds becoming northerly and light. Winds will remain out of
the east Tuesday into Wednesday until the front lifts back north of
the lake, with winds becoming southerly by Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Greenawalt



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