Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242349 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 749 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure glides east this evening as low pressure centered over the Central Plains approaches the region. This low will lift a warm front northeast across the region on Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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630 PM EDT Update... Dry weather with mostly clear skies (other than some patchy cirrus) will continue through tonight and no changes were needed with this update. Previous Discussion... High pressure has allowed for tranquil and dry weather today across the region. Expect for clear skies to gradually fill in with high level clouds throughout the evening and overnight hours tonight ahead of our next weather system. We`ll remain dry through much of the day on Monday before precipitation chances gradually ramp up overnight Monday into Tuesday. Breezy conditions ahead of the system with gusts to 25 MPH possible during the afternoon hours on Monday. Southeasterly winds will ramp up Monday night into Tuesday morning with wind gusts 35-40 MPH late Monday night. Higher gusts possible in downsloping in Erie, PA. Low temperatures tonight settle in the low to mid 30s. High temperatures under WAA on Monday will rise into the mid 60s for most, mid 50s across Northwest Pennsylvania. Overnight lows on Monday night drop into the mid 40s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday is still looking like a wet and breezy day as a strong mid/upper shortwave trough lifts into the western Great Lakes, with the left exit of a 140-150 knot H3 jet streak supporting a surface low deepening to near 990 mb as it reaches Lake Superior by evening. Strong warm/moist advection driven by a 45-50+ knot low-level jet in response to the aforementioned upper level dynamics will lead to abundant isentropic ascent along and ahead of a warm frontal boundary that will progress east during the morning, so expect widespread showers to quickly progress from west to east after sunrise. The system is trending more progressive, and the widespread clouds and showers will also greatly limit instability (no convection expected), so this will keep QPF in check and eliminate any flooding concerns. Still, everyone will see rain Tuesday morning into the afternoon with generally 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected, with the highest amounts west of I-71. As the deepening low lifts toward Lake Superior later Tuesday afternoon and evening, a dry slot looks to punch in as we become entrenched in the warm sector, so cut PoPs back to chance to low end likely. One more band of showers will progress east across the region Tuesday night as the trailing cold front moves through. Coverage and QPF will be much less given weaker moisture flux ahead of the boundary, but a somewhat coupled jet structure with a 130+ knot H3 jet across the Appalachians will squeeze out some additional rain, so have likely PoPs everywhere Tuesday night. Most areas will be dry Wednesday, but chances for scattered showers are trending longer into the day for eastern Ohio and western PA since the surface and mid/upper lows will become vertically stacked while slowly lifting toward James Bay Wednesday and Wednesday night. This combined with a secondary wave of low pressure developing on the frontal boundary over the SE U.S. will slow down the cold front`s eastward exit, so held onto chance PoPs for eastern Ohio and western PA Wednesday into early Wednesday night before finally ending completely as strong surface high pressure builds eastward into the Ohio Valley. Highs in the mid 50s/low 60s Tuesday will cool into the upper 40s/low 50s in most areas Wednesday, but upper 50s will hold in eastern Ohio and western PA where the frontal boundary hangs. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the low/mid 40s, then will be much colder Wednesday night as the high builds in, with upper 20s/low 30s expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The end of the week will be quiet and seasonably cool as broad mid/upper troughing over the eastern CONUS gradually progresses eastward while a huge dome of surface high pressure centered over the Midwest gradually becomes centered over the Tennessee Valley. This will lead to lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s Thursday and upper 40s/mid 50s Friday. Further height rises are expected next weekend as a large upper low moves into California, forcing quasi-zonal flow across the central and eastern CONUS. This will support moderating temperatures, but a strong northern stream jet that will be trying to push back south through the weekend will send shortwave energy across the southern Great Lakes along what could be an active baroclinic zone. Guidance differs on timing and strength of these features, so limited PoPs to slight chance to chance for now with highs in the low/upper 50s Saturday and mid/upper 50s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and cirrus will continue through the TAF period. Winds will shift from the east to southeast and increase to 8 to 14 knots tonight with a few gusts to about 20 knots possible overnight. There`s a chance of a marginal LLWS risk in the western half of the area as 2000 ft AGL winds reach about 40 knots in response to a LLJ developing over the region early Monday morning, but gusts may start mixing to the surface by that time so did not include in the TAFs. By late afternoon, southeasterly winds will increase to closer to 15 knots and gusts may touch 25 knots by the end of the period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers late Monday night through early Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Easterly winds have picked up to 15-20 knots in the western basin this afternoon. The strongest winds are in the open waters, and the duration will be short before winds diminish and become more SE tonight, so held off on a Small Craft headline. As the winds become SE tonight, they will decrease to 10-15 knots, with SE winds of 10- 15 knots continuing Monday before turning S to SE and increasing to 15-25 knots Monday night and Tuesday. Small Craft headlines are possible Monday night and Tuesday. Winds will turn W to SW and decrease to 10-15 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday, with W winds of 5-15 knots Wednesday night through Friday, so no concerns are expected on the lake for mid to late week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Garuckas

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