382
FXUS65 KABQ 240903
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Dry and seasonably warm weather prevails across central and northern
NM today. Strong southwest to west winds and critical to extreme
fire weather conditions are expected across most of central and
eastern NM Thursday afternoon. A cooler and wetter storm impacts the
area Saturday, but temps rapidly rise back above average early next
week. Thunderstorms may arrive in eastern NM around the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Ridge of high pressure currently in place will remain for part of
the day before breaking down ahead of an incoming upper low.
Temperatures, while still well above normal most areas, will see a
modest cool down thanks to the previous day`s back door front and
increasing clouds. The ridge will begin breaking down just after
midday, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions to the high
terrain and their adjacent highlands. Overnight temperatures will
remain above average, assisted in part by the persisting cloud
cover. The 562dam low makes its way into AZ Thursday, allowing the
H5 pressure gradient to tighten considerably over NM. Meanwhile, a
lee-side low in eastern CO will deepen to 988mb, setting the stage
for an afternoon of windy to very windy conditions. The setup will
create a corridor along the highlands and immediately adjacent
plains of the central mts, where gusts of 45 to 50kts will be
possible. As such, did hoist a High Wind Watch for the
aforementioned area for Thursday afternoon to early evening. The
Pacific cold front will bring a reduction in temperatures to areas
west of the central mts, where afternoon highs will be 5F to 12F
cooler than Wednesday`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A mostly dry cold front will finish crossing the state Thursday
night, dropping temps only a few degrees with its passage. A
relatively tight pressure gradient will allow breezy west winds to
hold on through the night, although some stronger gusts are likely
along and just east of the northern mountains. A ~990mb sfc low in
southeast CO will allow widespread breezy to windy conditions to
persist across the area Friday.

Another Low swings through the Four Corners region Saturday,
bringing wind and increased precip. chances with it. A few GEFS
members have a slower-moving trough, but there is relatively good
agreement that this progressive trough will quickly pass through
northern NM during the day on Saturday. This Low will be deeper,
colder, and more moist than the Thursday storm with scattered
showers and storms across the northern half of the CWA. Modest
afternoon destabilization will result in increased precip. chances
during the day and less coverage overnight. The base of the trough
will swing through south-central NM, making it more of a wind event
there. Heights rapidly rise Sunday into Monday as the jet stream
lifts to the north, allowing temps to climb back above average. With
weaker zonal flow in place, dry line thunderstorm activity may make
its first appearance of the season by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A backdoor cold front has surged swd and wwd across the ern plains
today, arriving to the central mts this evening. This fropa has
created a tight density gradient btwn KABQ and KCQC, resulting in
blustery ely canyon winds at KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning has
been issued for the near term to account for this activity. Winds
will diminish during the overnight hours, but still remain
somewhat brisk across the RGV and ewd. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible due to lowering ceilings and potential FG across the ern
plains, including KTCC, aft 24/10Z. Breezy to lcl windy sly to
swly winds will return tomorrow aftn for most terminals,
diminishing aft sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY...

Winds will pick up modestly today as the ridge begins to break down.
While the east sees improved humidity this afternoon, areas across
the highlands and westward will continue to see brutally dry
conditions. An incoming upper low will bring strong winds amongst
very low humidity on Thursday. Southwest winds nearly areawide will
strengthen to critical thresholds and in the presence of low double
to single digit relative humidity, will create critical to extreme
fire weather conditions. The highest winds will favor the highlands
of the central mountains and their immediately adjacent plains where
gusts to 60 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Widespread
humidity in the low double to single digits can be expected, with
some single digit RH persisting for longer than 5 hours in denser
fuels of central New Mexico. As such, did upgrade the previously
issued Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, maintaining the
previous zones.

Overnight humidity recoveries across the central mountains and
westward will see improvement from the frontal passage, while the
east remains poor to fair. Similarly, the west will see improvement
on Friday, with most areas west of the Rio Grande Valley seeing RH
values above critical thresholds. Conversely, critical fire weather
conditions are expected to persist across portions of the lower Rio
Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico, where min RH remains in the
low double digits. Humidity continues to improve on Saturday,
shifting the critical threat to the easternmost fringe of the
forecast area. Winds relax further on Sunday, with localized
critical fire weather conditions possible across the central
highlands. No critical fire weather conditions are expected on
Monday but might possible return Tuesday across northeast New Mexico
as elevated winds meet with RH in the low double digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  42  68  42 /   0   0  10  10
Dulce...........................  75  36  66  34 /   0   0  10  20
Cuba............................  76  39  65  35 /   0   0  10  20
Gallup..........................  77  34  64  33 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  73  37  60  34 /   0   0  10   0
Grants..........................  77  34  65  34 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  73  37  63  33 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  77  46  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  73  39  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  76  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  70  34  60  32 /   0   0  20  20
Los Alamos......................  73  47  65  40 /   0   0  10  10
Pecos...........................  74  41  68  37 /   0   0   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  70  38  62  38 /   0   0   5  10
Red River.......................  66  33  59  30 /   0   0  10  10
Angel Fire......................  67  29  60  29 /   0   0   5  10
Taos............................  75  35  68  32 /   0   0   5  10
Mora............................  72  38  66  36 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  81  44  73  41 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  74  46  67  39 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  78  43  70  38 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  53  70  45 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  50  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  49  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  84  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  82  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  83  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  83  46  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  50  70  44 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  82  50  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  85  51  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  47  65  41 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  76  47  68  40 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  76  45  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  40  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  42  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  55  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  50  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  69  42  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  75  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  76  40  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  44  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  69  49  80  46 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  73  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  80  51  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  50  79  46 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  78  52  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  81  55  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  83  56  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  55  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  58  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  55  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  52  77  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-106-
109-121-123>126.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for NMZ223-225>229-231>233-237>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12