Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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778 FXUS65 KABQ 242350 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 550 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Windy and widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Four Corners region and central and southern Rockies. Winds remain breezy to locally windy Friday behind Thursday`s system and ahead of the next system. This 22nd system moves through the state Saturday and take a more southerly track compared to Thursday`s resulting in rain showers, mountain peak snow and cooler temperatures along and west of the central mountain chain. It will be windy and drier across eastern and southern areas during the day Saturday. Temperatures across western and central areas rebound on Sunday with lighter winds behind that system. Some afternoon showers possible in far northeast areas behind a backdoor front. After a quiet Monday, the dryline retreats west into southeast New Mexico Tuesday morning possibly resulting in a late afternoon to evening storm there. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 An approaching upper low, currently offshore of Socal per the latest water vapor imagery, will accelerate east overnight then lift northeast from central AZ through the central Rockies and eject out over east central CO Thursday night. Ahead of the upper low tonight, a tap of Pacific moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring considerable high cloudiness and act to limit radiational cooling and help to keep the lower boundary layer mixed longer, making for above normal low temperatures. The advertised track of the upper low will steer strong southwest winds aloft over the area Thursday and bring a rapidly deepening lee side trough at the surface. The surface low is forecast to drop to near an impressive 988mb across east central CO late Thursday, which is a favorable position to enhance winds across northeast NM. In addition, mixing heights are forecast to reach up to around 500mb tomorrow, where speeds will vary from 45kts to 70kt across the area. The stronger 70kt 500mb speeds are modeled to be located across east central and south central NM mid day Thursday. Given this setup, we have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning and added the South Central Highlands. We also added our eastern-most zones as a Wind Advisory for Thursday. The strong winds is one component of Thursdays impact weather, but another potential major impact is blowing dust which has been referenced in the warning product. We`ll likely be issuing Dust Warnings/Advisories Thursday afternoon, with the Roswell vicinity being the most obvious candidate given the known dust issue there and where the worst drought conditions in our area reside. The upper low will bring sufficient moisture to the northwest quarter for a round of showers and possibly some thunder Thursday afternoon/evening. Very little measurable precipitation is expected at the lower elevations, but the peaks could pick up a fresh couple inches of snow by Thursday night. Strong winds will continue on the backside of the ejecting upper low Thursday night across eastern NM, which will likely hold up low temperatures and keep them above normal. The NAM is advertising a mountain wave signal for the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos Thursday night, with possible extension down to I-25, which will need to be considered by subsequent shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The upper trough/ low from Thursday ejects into the central Great Plains Friday with brisk zonal flow of 25 to 40 kts at 700 mb in it`s wake and ahead of the next upper level trough over the Pacific NW and Great Basin. The strongest winds with gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be across the central highlands and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the morning hours spreading across the east central plains in the afternoon. Another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected across the middle and lower RGV and eastern NM (see fire weather discussion). Rain and high elevation snow showers will enter northwest NM Friday night as the developing upper low moves southeast towards the Four Corners by daybreak. Winds will remain gusty across the southern high terrain due to increasing 700 mb flow of 35 to 50 kts. The upper low moves across the NM/CO border during the day Saturday bringing rain and mountain peak snow showers to most areas and resulting cooler temperatures along and west of the central mountain chain. Eastern NM will be dryslotted thanks to the very gusty southwest flow ahead of the upper low. Guidance indicates likely Wind Advisories across the east central and southeast plains and south central mountains Saturday afternoon due to strong 700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kts. Showers across western and central NM quickly taper off early Saturday night as the upper low exits northeast into the central Great Plains with with lighter at times brisk dry westerly flow in it`s wake for Sunday. A weak shortwave combined with a surface backdoor front on the backside of the upper low looks to move across the far northern mountains and northeast NM Sunday afternoon and provide few isolated showers. Weak upper level ridging moves in Sunday night into Monday pushing the storm track back north over the northern Rockies. Monday will be a splendid spring day with sunny skies, light west winds and high temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Southeast return flow sets up over the southeast plains and brings in Gulf moisture Monday night into Tuesday morning as the upper level ridge moves east. A shortwave moving to the northeast along the subtropical jet could spark a storm or two across the southeast plains Tuesday evening. The dryline and higher Gulf moisture ahead of it across Texas then looks to back into the eastern plains Wednesday morning setting the stage for some strong to severe storms as the aforementioned shortwave moves through the state come next Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A dry slot approaching from the west will force the high cloud deck currently over the region eastward into TX. Winds aloft will strengthen with this dry slot and lead to greater coverage of mountain waves and turbulence overnight. A weak surface boundary draped over far eastern NM late today will allow IFR low cigs to redevelop along the TX/NM border overnight. Confidence on any low cigs at KTCC is low so there is no mention in the 00Z TAF, but satellite and obs will be monitored for updates. The main impact to aviation will occur Thursday with widespread strong winds and BLDU. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 kt will be common with the strongest gusts focused over eastern NM. BLDU may lead to IFR cigs/vsbys around KROW and KCVS aft 19Z. An Airport Weather Warning for strong winds is very likely at KABQ Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY... A Pacific low will move east from AZ across the southern Rockies Thursday and into the plains Thursday night, steering strong winds and a dry slot over NM and bringing a round of strong winds and critical fire weather conditions. Stronger winds will persist with low humidity across eastern NM Friday in the wake of the departing low, so have issued a Fire Weather Watch for eastern portions of the area. Also included the middle Rio Grande Valley, mainly for the southern half with special consideration given to the Bosque in Socorro County. Another upper level trough will move through Saturday, but this one has a further south track which will bring higher humidity to much of the area compared to tomorrow`s event and displace the strongest winds further south. The east central plains is the only area that may be impacted by critical fire weather conditions on Friday. The trough will bring decent chances for wetting precipitation to northern and western portions of the area Saturday, especially in the mountains. Critical fire weather conditions are currently not forecast from Sun through Tue of next week with a transient low amplitude ridge bringing a warming trend and less wind. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail Tue/Wed of next week, although a Gulf moisture intrusion across the eastern plains will bring higher humidity there with chances for wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 43 68 43 67 / 0 20 10 10 Dulce........................... 36 66 33 64 / 0 20 20 20 Cuba............................ 40 64 36 63 / 0 30 20 10 Gallup.......................... 34 63 33 65 / 0 20 5 0 El Morro........................ 36 60 33 62 / 0 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 35 65 34 66 / 0 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 63 32 65 / 0 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 63 34 63 / 0 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 67 31 69 / 0 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 60 31 57 / 0 30 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 46 66 40 63 / 0 20 10 10 Pecos........................... 42 67 38 64 / 0 10 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 62 41 58 / 0 10 10 5 Red River....................... 34 56 31 55 / 0 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 31 59 28 55 / 0 10 10 5 Taos............................ 37 68 33 64 / 0 10 10 0 Mora............................ 39 66 37 63 / 0 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 45 73 41 71 / 0 10 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 46 68 39 66 / 0 10 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 71 39 69 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 72 46 71 / 5 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 73 45 73 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 75 43 75 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 73 44 73 / 0 5 0 0 Belen........................... 47 77 43 76 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 74 43 74 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 76 43 75 / 5 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 74 45 75 / 5 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 76 44 75 / 5 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 50 71 44 69 / 0 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 73 44 73 / 0 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 79 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 65 40 63 / 5 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 47 69 40 67 / 5 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 70 39 68 / 0 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 72 36 71 / 0 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 39 75 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 41 75 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 50 81 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 76 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 84 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 80 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 54 86 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 86 49 79 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 58 87 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 85 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 90 51 85 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 80 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-106- 109-121-123>126. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ223>229- 231>233-237>240. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ230-234>236. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-106-123>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...42