Text Products for AFD Issued by AFG

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXAK69 PAFG 122324
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A winter storm that brought wind, heavy snow, and low visibility
to parts of the West Coast and Western Interior is weakening after
moving inland near Kotzebue. Snow showers will continue across the
Interior this afternoon and evening. A low pressure system in the
Arctic will bring blowing snow and low visibility to the Arctic
Coast through tomorrow morning. A ridge aloft will build in south
of the Brooks Range on Sunday, bringing warmer and drier
conditions to much of the Interior for early next week. A strong
storm moving into the central Bering Sea will bring another round
of heavy snow, blowing snow, and wind to parts of the West Coast
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A fairly deep trough aloft extends south from a deep upper level
low northwest of Wrangel Island. These features will continue to
progress east through Sunday morning bringing snow showers and
wind to much of the state. A ridge aloft will bring quieter and
warmer conditions to most of the state late this weekend and early
next week. A strong vertically stacked low pressure system will
move into the central Bering Sea on Monday, bringing another round
of heavy snow, strong winds, and blowing snow to much of the West
Coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Models are in good agreement on the general pattern, precipitation,
and features both at the surface and aloft, except for the system
moving into the Bering Sea on Monday where a large amount of
uncertainty remains, especially in terms of timing. Models have
come into much better agreement for a system that may bring
blizzard conditions to the eastern Arctic Coast late tonight and
early Saturday. We will trend the forecast toward the Canadian
model as it has been the most consistent in its depiction of the
numerous systems impacting northern Alaska, and also shows a nice
middle ground solution in terms of timing and strength of the
systems.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Snow showers will continue this afternoon and overnight mainly
west of Delta Junction. Expect quick accumulations of 2" or less.
South winds through Alaska Range passes will continue to diminish
overnight. Temperatures this weekend will be cooler with highs in
the low to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens. Temperatures will
warm significantly from the early to the middle part of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in
effect for snow, blowing snow, and low visibility as a low
pressure system moves east to the north of the Arctic Coast. The
last of these is set to expire at 6am Saturday for the eastern
Arctic Coast. Expect north winds gusting to 30 mph overnight
tonight through Brooks Range passes. Light snow accumulations of
less than 2 inches are expected across the western Arctic Coast
through the weekend as a couple of weak systems move onshore.
Highs will be in the single digits and teens above zero with lows
in the single digits and teens below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Blizzard conditions will continue in the Kotzebue Sound region
through early this evening before winds diminish as the storm
system moves further inland. A weak front from the northwest will
bring very light snow from Point Hope to the Yukon Delta on
Saturday. Another similar front is expected on Sunday. On Monday,
a strong system will move into the central Bering Sea. This will
bring another round of snow, blowing snow, and wind to the West
Coast. While there is a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing of
the system, as well as snow amounts, there is good agreement
between models that almost all of the precipitation will remain
west of Galena. Temperatures will follow a warming trend with
highs reaching the 30s across most of the area by Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...

Ridging will persist across the Interior, bringing warmer and
drier than normal conditions next week. Periods of strong south
winds through Alaska Range passes are expected as well with
Chinook conditions. Low pressure in the Bering Sea will keep
continued chances for precipitation over the West Coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-828.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817-818.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-808-809-812-852-853-855-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804>806-850-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

CHRIEST
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
