439
FXUS61 KALY 062330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will be clearing
out for tonight.  High pressure will allow for a mostly sunny and
warmer day on Tuesday.  Another storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with more unsettled
and cooler weather expected for the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 0730 PM EDT, only high cirrus coverage remains
across much of the region behind the departing cold front, with
drier air beginning to filter in on west to northwest winds,
resulting in surface dewpoints falling into the 30s and 40s from
Albany north and westward per latest regional ASOS and NYS
Mesonet observations, while mid 50s to low 60s are more common
south of the boundary in the Mid-Hudson Valley, eastern
Catskills, and western MA/northwestern CT. Expectations remain
that skies will continue to trend clearer overnight tonight as
the front slowly sags to the south. Areas of fog are possible,
most likely in sheltered areas along the Upper Hudson, but its
development remains low confidence. The forecast therefore
remains largely on track; see previous discussion below.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 PM EDT]...Slow moving surface cold front
has been taking its time crossing the forecast area today. The
boundary is finally getting close to passing through the
Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT. Behind the boundary,
lower clouds have cleared away (although some cirrus still
remains), and low level dewpoints have been falling with a west
to northwest breeze. Meanwhile, areas further south continue to
see widespread clouds, along with dewpoints well into the 50s to
near 60 and a light southerly flow.

Through the late evening hours, the front will continue to
slowly settle southward. A brief shower or sprinkle can`t be
ruled out with the passage for southern areas over the next few
hours, but any precip looks very spotty and brief. Otherwise,
clearing will finally be occurring for tonight from north to
south, especially after midnight with no additional precip.
With the lowering dewpoints, there shouldn`t be much fog around,
but can`t totally rule out some patchy fog in a sheltered area
if enough low level moisture remains around.

Temps tonight will be falling into the 40s across the entire
area, with the coldest temps over the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be located over Ontario on Tuesday,
which will make for a pleasant day across the entire area. With
plenty of dry air in place aloft, skies should be fairly sunny
across the entire area. Model soundings suggest good mixing to
about 850 hpa and valley areas should top out in the mid 70s
(mid 60s to low 70s in the higher terrain). It should be fairly
dry thanks to the decent mixing and dewpoints should generally
be in the 40s, making for very comfortable weather to be
outdoors.

After sunset, clouds will be increasing for the first part of
Tuesday night as the next system starts to approach west. An
approaching warm front looks to bring some precip to the area
for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially for
western and northern areas. A rumble of thunder may accompany
this activity. Lows should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

The warm front will be lifting northward, although it may get
hung up across our area for during the day on Wednesday. Models
aren`t clear if we fully get into the warm sector, as model
soundings suggest a low level inversion in place through much of
the day, which may keep clouds around. However, upper level
shortwave and surface low pressure will be tracking right across
the area for late Wed morning into Wed afternoon. If enough
clearing does occur, there could be the threat for some strong
storms. 0-6 km bulk shear looks impressive, with values in the
40-60+ kts at times. While the low level lapse rates may be low
due to the low clouds, the mid levels will start to see some
rather steep lapse rates. 12z BUFKIT soundings on both NAM/GFS
show 500-700 mb rates around 7 C/km. There should be decent
dynamics in place, but it will depend on the low level
instability. SPC has a marginal risk for southern areas at this
time and it will ultimately depend on how much clearing and
instability can occur. If we do get some breaks and temps reach
into the 70s, a broken line of storms could bring a threat for
gusty winds and hail for Wednesday afternoon, as the low tracks
eastward.

The threat for showers and storms will be ending on Wednesday
evening with clearing for Wednesday night. Temps should fall
into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term
period.

A shortwave will be approaching from the Great Lakes on
Thursday. While the day may start off dry on Thursday, the
threat for showers will increase through the day and it should
be fairly wet by late Thursday across the entire area. With the
slow moving shortwave passing by to the south, wet weather will
continue for Thursday night into Friday as well, with our area
remaining on the cool northern side of the system. Although
temps should reach well into the 60s on Thursday, it looks cool
for Thursday night into Friday, with temps down into the 40s and
50s and skies remaining fairly cloudy.

Some brief ridging may return on Saturday. Although it will
start off fairly cloudy, some breaks of sun are possible,
especially for valley areas. Temps may still be cool, although
it will depend on much sunshine actually occurs. For now, will
go with temps in the 50s to low 60s across the area. Will still
mention a threat for showers in case the timing of shortwaves
changes.

The next system approaches for Sunday with more scattered
showers and continued mostly cloudy skies. Temps should
generally be in the 60s. Some warmer weather may finally return
by Monday, although the threat for scattered showers will still
be around.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the period at all terminals. Bkn cirrus at 20-25 kft at
ALB/POU/PSF with sct coverage farther north at GFL will trend toward
clear skies after 12Z Tue as a cold front continues to track away
from the region to the southeast. GFL will see clear skies earlier,
by the latter half of the overnight period, which may allow for
areas of fog/mist to develop by 08-12Z Tue, however confidence is
currently too low to include any vsby restrictions in TAFs. Any
fog/mist that does form will quickly dissipate following sunrise,
with a return to VFR vsbys by 12-13Z. Clear skies then continue
through Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in, with few fair wx
cu at 4-5 kft forming as diurnal heating maximizes after 18Z Tue.

Light winds will persist throughout the period at all terminals.
West to northwest winds this evening at less than 10 kt will
diminish further after 06-08Z Tue to 5 kt or less, generally out of
the north to northwest, increasing to 4-8 kt after 12-15Z Tue. At
GFL, local terrain effects will see north winds turn out of the
northeast overnight, with light east to southeast winds expected
after 18Z Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Picard
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Picard