Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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744 FXUS64 KAMA 020756 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 256 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A cold front was pushing southward and was just about to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. This front will likely push through the southern Texas Panhandle by mid morning. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front this morning, mainly across the eastern Panhandles. A few thunderstorms may be possible across the far southeast Texas Panhandle late tonight as upslope flow combines with low level warm air advection. On Friday, winds return to the south and southeast. This will advect moist air back into the region behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day given the low level moisture and warm air advection. Friday night, a cold front moves through and this could spark additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. An upper level short wave trough moving across the Panhandles will also aide in the lift department. && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Saturday in the post frontal environment. Plus and additional short wave trough is expected to move across. Showers and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday as yet another short wave trough moves across. The upper level flow then increases from the southwest Sunday night into Monday as a strong upper level closed low moves from the northern Rockies onto the northern high Plains. This low will have a negatively tilted trough extending southward from it that will swing across the Panhandles Monday morning. Southwest winds will respond to the upper level short wave and dry air will sweep across the Panhandles on Monday leaving the region POP free, except for the far southeast Texas Panhandle where some moist air may hang on long enough for some thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. The forecast then remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday as a fast zonal flow aloft spreads across the Panhandles. High temperatures are expected to be around to just below average for today through Sunday. Temperatures will then rebound to above normal again for Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A cold front will push south across the TAF sites this morning. North winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with higher gusts will be expected. Winds will slowly decrease by late this afternoon to 10 to 15 knots and they will turn more northeast and east. MVFR cigs are expected at AMA before the front and right after the front. MVFR cigs may be possible at GUY behind the front, but confidence is not high enough to add those cigs in a this point. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 77 50 73 52 / 20 10 30 30 Beaver OK 77 45 77 49 / 10 10 30 60 Boise City OK 72 44 75 44 / 0 10 30 30 Borger TX 80 52 77 54 / 10 10 40 40 Boys Ranch TX 78 50 77 51 / 0 10 30 30 Canyon TX 77 51 74 52 / 10 10 30 30 Clarendon TX 77 52 71 54 / 0 20 30 30 Dalhart TX 74 45 74 45 / 0 10 30 30 Guymon OK 75 44 75 47 / 0 10 30 50 Hereford TX 79 52 78 52 / 10 10 30 20 Lipscomb TX 77 49 76 53 / 20 10 30 60 Pampa TX 76 51 73 53 / 0 10 30 40 Shamrock TX 77 52 74 55 / 20 10 30 40 Wellington TX 79 54 75 56 / 20 20 40 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15