Text Products for AFD Issued by APX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 210210
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1010 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger possible Monday.

- Rain chances Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Broad troughing continues to slowly exit eastward out of the
Western Great Lakes region...with low level ridging building
into our area in its wake. skies have cleared across all of
Upper Michigan...with only some high thin cirrus drifting thru
that area. Lower Michigan remains under low clouds...but should
gradually clear from north to south during the overnight hours.
with clearing skies and diminishing wind speeds...temps should
have no problem cooling into the mid 20s to around 30 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A long wave trough will remain across the region through tonight
then slowly retreat to the northeast Sunday. Instability/moisture
will wane this evening ending any remaining light snow showers
across the region. Mostly cloudy skies will clear out this
evening leaving mostly clear skies overnight. Partly to mostly
sunny skies are then expected on Sunday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish this evening but pick up once again Sunday. Gusty
to around 25 mph will be common. Lows tonight ranging from the
mid 20s to low 30s. Milder Sunday with highs ranging from the
upper 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: Amplified troughing parked over the eastern third
of NOAM this weekend begins to trek east by Sunday night with
rebounding upper-level heights locally as we head into new work
week. Focus revolves around the Monday night - Tuesday time frame as
a mid-level wave and attendant surface low race toward the western
Great Lakes...likely bringing the next chance of showers. Heights
build late in the week in advance of another potential low pressure
system next weekend.

Forecast Details: Sunday`s winds give way to a calm & chilly Sunday
night with little in the way of sensible weather as the typically
cooler locales potentially fall to near 20 degrees for overnight low
temps. Temps rebound nicely Monday with many spots across northern
lower in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s. Potential for elevated fire
danger on Monday given low RHs and another relatively breezy day.

Aforementioned mid-level wave and attendant surface low approach
from the northwest Monday night. A couple rounds of showers expected
with this system -- initially Monday night into early Tuesday and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday evening in advance of the system`s
cold front. Perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as well later Tuesday
dependent on any midday clearing to muster marginal instability.

A drying trend expected Wednesday through at least Friday morning.
Cool temps Wednesday, but bouncing back into the 50s and low 60s for
the end of the week. Next weather-maker sets its sights on northern
Michigan later Friday into the weekend as low pressure encroaches
from the southwest. Lots of details to sort out over the next
several days, but a return to more active weather looks pretty
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Deep/broad troughing will remain over the Western Great Lakes
region tonight into Sunday morning...but will begin to break
down by Sunday afternoon as the upstream ridge axis starts to
build into our region. Sct/bkn low VFR clouds will remain over
Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan thru Sunday...with
little in the way of precip or restrictions to vsby expected.
Surface winds will remain from the W/NW at 10 to 15 kts
tonight...strengthening to 15 to 25 kts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MLR
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
