Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Sherbro Island, Sierra
Leone, then runs southwestward to 03N17W. An ITCZ continues from
03N17W to beyond 00N28W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near the ITCZ south of 02N between 17W and 34W. No significant
convection is near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area,
passing just south of New Orleans to near Galveston, Texas. A
surface trough is over the northwestern and west-central Gulf.
Patchy showers are seen near these features. A surface ridge
extends west-southwestward from a 1015 mb high at the east-central
Gulf to north of Veracruz, Mexico. Enhanced by cooler nighttime
temperatures, moist southeasterly winds are causing patchy fog
across the northwestern Gulf. Oil platforms in the area are
reporting visibility of 2 nm. In addition, smoke and haze from
agricultural fires across Mexico is reducing visibility down to 3
nm across the west-central and southwestern Gulf.

Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas are evident at the northeastern and east-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1015 mb high and related ridge will persist
across the central Gulf through Sun. The stationary front is
expected to begin drifting north and dissipate later tonight. A
new cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf Sun evening
and gradually shift south of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing
wind and seas are expected behind this front Sun night through
Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and northwest
of the Yucatan Peninsula during the nighttime and early morning
hours tonight and Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge along 26N continues to support a fair trade-
wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE
to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Fresh to strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the
Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the southwestern,
and the rest of the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to
E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will
support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and
portions of the southeastern basin through Tue. Afterward, these
winds will become moderate to fresh through Fri, except for strong
winds developing at night off Colombia. Fresh trade winds will
pulse to strong across the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through Mon. A cold front will sink into
the northwestern basin Tue evening, then stall from eastern Cuba
to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Wed before dissipating Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers west and
southwest of the Canary Islands north of 23N between 21W and 28W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin. A vast subtropical ridge and its associated
1022 mb high near 30N41W is dominating both the western and
central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft exist north of 20N between 55W and Florida/Bahamas. Gentle
to moderate NNE to E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate
northerly swell are found north of 20N between 25W and 55W. Near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate NW swell dominate north of 15N
between the Africa coast and 25W. To the west, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in
moderate to large NW swell exist from the Equator to 20N between
25W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with
3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist
along 26N through Mon. A cold front will enter the offshore
waters of northeastern Florida on Mon, then slide eastward and
reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue
afternoon. It should weaken while reaching from the central
Atlantic waters to northern Hispaniola by Thu morning. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds are expected north of 27N and ahead of the
front Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to strong with
possible gale-force NW to N winds will follow the front Mon night
through Tue evening. High pressure will settle across the area
Wed through Thu.

$$

Chan


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