Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190951
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from
near 31N75W to inland South  Florida will progress eastward
across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest
gale-force winds precede the front north of about 29N and east
to 65W, and northwest gale-force winds are behind the front. An
overnight ASCAT satellite data pass captured the gale-force
northwest winds as they begin to filter in behind the front. The
gale-force winds both ahead and behind the front are generally
confined to north of 29N between 72W and 77W. They will continue
through this morning behind the front and last into this afternoon
ahead of the front. Seas with these winds are in the range of 9
to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough seas
will shift eastward with the cold front to north of 29N between
62W and 67W by early this afternoon. As this front weakens Tue
afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually
subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N18W and to 02N25W,
where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 00N34W and to just south of the
equator to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of
the trough east of 22W to along the coast of Africa and within 60
nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to 24N90W and
to Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present along and north of the frontal boundary east of 87W.
Similar activity is over the Straits of Florida and along and just
offshore central Cuba. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass
nicely depicted north-northeast winds of fresh to strong speeds
north of the front over the central gulf. Seas over these waters
are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring from 24N to 26N
between 93W and 97W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
exit the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
behind the front will continue through this morning. Low pressure
is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast on
Thu, then track east-northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a
cold front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland
northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring
increasing winds and seas to the affected waters, as well as
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure is present over the central and eastern
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America is maintaining
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southeastern
Caribbean waters. Partial overnight ASCAT satellite data passes
over these areas indicated the presence of these winds. Seas in
the areas described are 7-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure described above will support
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate
to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic.
This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean
today, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of
Colombia through Sat night while decreasing in coverage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale warning over the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N74W to South Florida. Satellite
imagery shows clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving eastward to the southeast of the front. This activity
is noted from 27N to 31N between 70w and 76W. Scattered showers
are west of the front from 27N to 29N. An overnight ASCAT
satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northwest winds
elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the
front. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds with seas 8 to 10
ft are east of the front to 61W and north of about 28N, with the
exception of the gale conditions described under the Special
Features section.

The weather pattern for the rest of the tropical Atlantic is
tied to high pressure of 1024 mb that is analyzed near 29N41W.
A broad ridge extends westward from this high to the central
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa support moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds south of 26N and seas of 6-9 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present in the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida this morning, from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas early this afternoon, then weaken
as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are ahead and behind the
front, with gale force winds over the waters north of 27N. The
gale force winds behind the front end this morning while those
east of the front end late this afternoon. Weak low pressure may
form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front
reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will
quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the
forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf
of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat
and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift
eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over
the western waters.

$$
Aguirre


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