Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 132318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 14  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2317 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are currently north of a
line from 31N62W to 23N52W to 30N40W. The area of 12 ft seas
will sweep eastward across the waters north of 23N between 35W
and 57W through mid-week, then diminish in areal extent and
shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure north of Puerto
Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE
to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla
during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around
10 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night
through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11.50N16W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W
to 01S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 03S to 04N between the west coast of Africa and
26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the northeastern part of the basin is
producing an area of scattered moderate convection from 24.50N
to 29N between 86W and 89W. Outside of convection, gentle to
moderate SE to S winds prevail west of 90W, with light
to gentle E to SE winds east of 90W. Slight seas or less are
found across the entire basin.

For the forecast, ridging will persist across the Gulf waters
through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of
the basin tonight through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula
each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold
front may move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Aside from the Gale warning area, fresh to strong E winds and
rough seas are over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere east
of 78W, moderate to fresh E winds and seas are present, while
gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted west of 78W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure centered north of the
Greater Antilles will slide eastward over the next few days.
This ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force
at night through Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the
strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of
Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N30W to 23N49W and continues as a
stationary front to near Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Fresh
to strong W winds are observed behind the front to 62W north of
29N. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26.50N64.50W north
of the stationary front with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate W to NW
winds are elsewhere west of the cold front. Ahead of the front,
moderate SW winds are observed within 50 nm north of 27N with
gentle or less winds extending to another 1019 mb high pressure
centered near 21N35W. Moderate NE winds prevail south of 20N.
Aside from the area of seas 12 ft or greater, rough seas cover
the waters north of 19N between 51W and 67W, behind the front.
Across the remainder of the basin, moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad ridging will prevail through
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of
60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will
gradually subside from W to E through the end of the week.

$$
KRV


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