Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 19 ft are currently north of a
line from 30N61W to 23N53W to 30N42W. The area of 12 ft seas will
sweep eastward across the waters north of 23N between 35W and 65W
through mid-week, then diminish in areal extent and shift
northeast of the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1022 mb high pressure northeast of the
Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale-force NE to E winds
across the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of
Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to
35 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are
likely around 12 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each
night through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 01S35W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south
of 03N and east of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail west of 90W, with light
to gentle E to SE winds east of 90W. Slight seas or less are found
across the entire basin.

For the forecast, ridging will persist across the Gulf waters
through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the
basin tonight through Fri night. Due to local effects, fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night and early morning hours. A cold front may
move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Aside from the near-gale to gale-force winds, fresh to strong E
winds and rough seas are observed over the south-central Caribbean
in a recent scatterometer pass. Elsewhere east of 80W, moderate
to fresh E winds and seas are present, while gentle to moderate E
winds and slight seas are noted west of 80W.

For the forecast, the 1022 mb high pressure system centered north
of the Greater Antilles will slide eastward over the next few
days. This ridge will sustain fresh to strong winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-
force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of
Hispaniola mid-week through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N34W to 20N54W and continues as a
stationary front to near Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Fresh
to strong W winds are observed behind the front to 63W north of
29N. High pressure is centered near 27N69W west of the front with
light to gentle anticyclonic winds in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are elsewhere west of the
cold front. Ahead of the front, moderate SW winds are observed
within 50 nm north of 29N with gentle or less winds extending to
another high pressure centered near 22N30W. Moderate NE winds
prevail south of 18N. Aside from the area of seas 12 ft or
greater, rough seas cover the waters north of 22N between 55W and
70W, behind the front. Across the remainder of the basin,
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad ridging will prevail through
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds north of 29N and east
of 60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will
gradually subside from west to east through the end of the week.

$$
Nepaul


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