Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front will be along 31N70W 25N80W, in 36 hours, on Monday
night. The forecast consists of W to NW gale-force winds, and
rough seas, from 27N northward from the cold front westward.
Expect on Monday night: strong NW winds, and moderate seas,
elsewhere from the cold front westward. Expect also from 27N
northward between the cold front and the line 31N62W 29N65W:
strong SW winds and moderate seas. The current conditions are:
broad mostly moderate anticyclonic surface wind flow, and slight
seas, are from 70W westward.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to
the Equator along 32W, to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 01N southward between 40W and 49W in the coastal waters and
in the coastal plains of Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward from 40W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary is in the U.S.A. coastal plains/in the coastal
waters, from NE Florida to the Deep South of Texas. The part of
the front that is in Florida is a cold front. This cold front is
the boundary that will move into the SW North Atlantic Ocean by
Monday night. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is
associated with the cold front. The rest of the boundary has been
fluctuating from stationary, to warm, and to stationary again,
during the last 24 hours or so. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is
from 27N northward from the Florida Big Bend westward.

Fresh to strong easterly winds were within 150 nm of the northern
part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the late night and early
morning hours. Moderate or slower SE winds have been in the Gulf
of Mexico. Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will dissipate today
ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf waters
later today. Showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over
the NW Gulf. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Tampico, Mexico tonight, from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz,
Mexico Mon morning, and exit the basin on Tue morning. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight
through Tue morning. A dense fog advisory is in effect for parts
of the west-central Florida until noon today. In addition, oil
platforms have been reporting dense fog in the NW offshore waters.
Medium density smoke originating from widespread fire activity in
Mexico is over the adjacent waters from Tampico to Veracruz with
visibility 5 nm or less.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds are within 150 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong NE to E winds, and
rough seas, are elsewhere from 15N southward between 68W and
78W...including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mostly fresh to some
strong easterly winds are from 68W eastward. Moderate E to SE
winds are from 17N to 20N between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are from 83W westward in the NW corner of the
area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are
elsewhere from 80W eastward. Mostly slight to some moderate seas
are from 80W westward. An exception is slight seas of the eastern
point of Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.20 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.14 in
Guadeloupe and in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the east and central Caribbean through Tue. Then,
winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front
moves across the western Atlantic. This front will sink into the
NW Caribbean Tue then briefly stall over eastern Hispaniola Tue
night before lifting N of the area Wed evening. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning for Monday night in the SW North
Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through a 32N32W 1022 mb high pressure
center, to a second 1022 mb high pressure center that is near
29N42W, to 26N54W, to 25N73W, and beyond south Florida, into the
east central Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
is from 14N northward.

A cold front passes through 33N60W, to 31N66W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are from 27N northward between 20W and 70W.
Any convective precipitation is from 31N northward.

Rough seas are to the east of the line 10N57W 13N49W 16N45W
18N40W 31N33W. Some exceptions are: moderate seas from 04N
southward between 40W and 50W; and moderate seas to the south of
the line 07N40W 07N25W 17N25W 15N17W. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are
within 270 nm on either side of the line 19N17W 18N25W 14N38W
11N55W. Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 25N southward
from 50W eastward, and from 25N50W 19N60W southward. Fresh to
strong SW winds are from 28N northward between 60W and 70W.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front will move off NE Florida tonight, and reach from
31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda
through the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it
reaches from near 31N58W to NE Hispaniola by early on Wed. Fresh
to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the
front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale-force Mon night
into Tue, affecting the waters N of 27N. The front will move E of
the area on Thu. A ridge will build in its wake.

$$
mt/gr


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