Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270657
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
257 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system is bringing clouds and showers to the area
through Thursday. Dry and partly sunny conditions are expected
for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The upcoming weekend
features seasonable temperatures with a chance for scattered
rain showers on Saturday, with dry and mostly sunny weather
returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM update...

Same as last time. Temperatures still mostly in the 50s so
raised. With little rain tonight temperatures will stay mild.
Rain on radar along I81 only doing a few sprinkles out of a mid
deck. The next surge now over Lake Erie will get here after
midnight. Lowered pops tonight but kept the likely pops
Wednesday into Wed night.

5 PM update...

Updated to increase hourly and max temperatures to the mid and
upper 50s and low 60s. Also made it cloudy everywhere into
Wednesday. Slowed the onset of light rain moving into the
central southern tier and Finger Lakes this evening.

245 PM Update

Light rain will start pushing into the region late tonight out
ahead of a weak frontal system. Scattered rain showers continue
overnight, with the highest PoPs and QPF across Central NY
where up to quarter of an inch of rain could fall. All
precipitation should fall as rain as temperatures will stay mild
overnight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The front will push across our area tomorrow and stall around
the Hudson Valley. This should keep the bulk of the shower
activity to the east of I81 corridor. Depending exactly where
the front stalls out will determine where the showers will
continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 AM Update...

Light rain and snow showers may linger in far eastern portions of
Sullivan and Pike Counties as a frontal system exits the region
Thursday night. Otherwise, high pressure will build in following the
departure of the front and bring quiet weather during this period.
Fairly strong northwest flow will result in blustery conditions.
Sustained winds of 20 mph and peak gusts of 30+ mph are expected
Friday and Friday night. While temperatures will be in the 40s during
the day on Friday, it will feel like the 30s thanks to the stronger
winds. Overnight temperatures both nights will fall below freezing
for most, but with the blustery winds Friday night, wind chills in
the teens will be possible by Saturday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 AM Update...

A weak clipper system will pass southwest the region this weekend.
There continues to be uncertainty how far east rain showers will be
as this system will have to overcome drier air. For now, low chance
PoPs remain in the forecast for Saturday night. Snow will be
possible in the higher elevations across the region which may result
in very light accumulations. High pressure builds back in by Sunday,
cutting off any lingering showers that may remain during the morning
hours. Dry conditions will persist through at least Monday. A
surface low in the Central US will move east early next week and
bring the next best chance for rain to the region. Model guidance
continue to differ with track and timing of this system, so
similarly to the previous forecast, the NBM was favored and PoPs
were capped at 70%.

Temperatures will trend slightly warmer through early next week with
most in the 50s Sunday and Monday as colder air lifts north. Tuesday
is expected to be cooler with rain showers present. Lows will follow
a similar trend, going from 20s/30s to 30s/40s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update

It is still VFR for most of our taf sites at this time. However,
AVP is already MVFR fuel alt, as lower level clouds have pushed
in from the south/east here. MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions
are expected to continue here for the rest of the day and early
evening...then potentially falling to IFR here with low clouds
and mist after 28/02z or so. AVP will see periods of rain,
steady at times between about 13z and 00z today.

BGM is still VFR, but expected to have tempo MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs
develop before 10z early this morning. BGM will be on the edge
of an MVFR cloud deck and rain shield through the morning hours,
but looks to lift back to VFR during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The CIGs then settle back down to MVFR Fuel Alt
by 00z, and fall even further to IFR after 28/03z as a cool
frontal boundary stalls over the area and winds shift westerly.

ELM is still VFR, but CIGs could fall into the MVFR/MVFR Fuel
Alt category over the next several hours and remain there until
mid-morning. By late morning and afternoon a return to VFR
conditions is expected here, as it will be west of the rain
shield and clouds look to scatter and/or lift up to a mid level
deck. As the cool front approaches and winds shift northerly,
it will usher in lower CIGs back to at least MVFR this evening
(after about 28/01z).

ITH looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 030ft and 080ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 01z this evening, MVFR
fuel alt CIGs are expected here through the end of the taf
period, along with a few scattered showers.

SYR looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 060ft and 110ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 00z this evening, MVFR
CIGs are expected here for several hours, along with a few
scattered showers. Also there will be LLWS here through around
14z this morning; with southerly winds around 35kts at 2k ft agl.

RME remains mainly VFR today, but can`t rule out some tempo MVFR
CIGs as a few rain showers pass by early this morning.
Otherwise, it will be sct to bkn clouds between about 035 to
050 ft much of the day. After about 28/01z CIGs settle back down
to MVFR here through the end of the taf period.

Outlook...

Late Tonight..Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/TAC
NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MJM/TAC


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