486
FXUS61 KBGM 301918
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
318 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front is moving through this afternoon sparking off
scattered showers and thunderstorms and a few of which could
become severe with damaging wind gust being the main concern.
Tomorrow will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
205 PM update...

With plentiful sunshine this morning into the early afternoon,
1000 to 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed across the
Finger Lakes down into NEPA. Wind shear is weakening as the
stronger 500 mb winds move off to the east but still there is 30
knots of 0-6 km shear through the rest of the afternoon. With a
shortwave trough moving in, falling heights and weak cold air
advection have weakened the cap with storms developing. Storms
will likely grow upscale in the next few hours with the
potential for a few microburst and up to quarter size hail.
Heavy rainfall is possible with these storms as they grow
upscale and become more like an MCS. Some of the high res models
have stripes of 1 to 2 inches with these storms through the
evening so after the severe threat is over, a flash flood risk
takes over. The trough axis moves east of the region after
midnight with chances of precipitation dwindling quickly. With
the precipitation, fog could develop if the clouds can clear
before sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow will have slightly cooler aloft so temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler than today but still above average. A
subsidence inversion in place will keep the atmosphere stable
but some drizzle is possible at high elevations of the Catskills
and Poconos good boundary layer moisture flows over the summits
and cools adiabatically.

Better chance of fog on Wednesday night as surface high pressure
builds in with winds calming down and good radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
317 Update...

Surface ridging will shift from the Great Lakes into New England
Thursday and Friday, with fair weather expected through the
period. A shortwave trough will be dropping across northern New
England, but its effects look to stay east of our area on
Thursday.

With low level NW flow on Thursday, temperatures will be cooler
north of the Twin Tiers, where highs will be in the mid to
upper-60s. 70s will be more common across the Tiers, with
upper-70s in the Wyoming Valley.

Light southerly flow and warm advection will boost temperatures
into the 70s area-wide on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
317 PM Update...

A weak frontal boundary will push into the area from the west
Friday night into Saturday, despite upper level ridging in
place. Scattered rain showers are expected to spread into the
Finger Lakes Friday night, reaching east of the I-81 corridor
before Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will
linger through the day Saturday, with highs dropping into the
60s over most areas. A second front will quickly push into the
Great Lakes Sunday, with shower chances increasing later Sunday
afternoon. The shortwave trough associated with this system
looks to stay focused to our north, however, and this will mean
less upper level support, and spotty/disorganized shower
coverage. Temps look to be similar to Saturday.

Drier weather looks to arrive, once again, just in time for the
start of the workweek on Monday. A warm front to our south may
become the focus for showers heading into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Storms have developed across the Southern Tier into NEPA with
ELM, BGM, ITH, and AVP likely seeing a few thunderstorms pass
close to the terminals through 22Z. Rain will persist with MVFR
and IFR cigs at all terminals through about 6Z before rain ends
and begins to clear into the morning hours. VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow at all terminals by 15Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible,
becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...DK/MPH
LONG TERM...DK/MPH
AVIATION...AJG