Text Products for AFD Issued by BMX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 141716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

A surface ridge is currently centered across the Gulf Coast
States/SE US. Through Mon, this ridge will weaken, flatten, and
slowly nudge EWD toward the Atlantic as a low pressure over WI
quickly scoots across the Great Lakes, New England and into the N
Atlantic dragging an associated front SEWD pinching the ridge over
the SE US. In the upper levels, somewhat flat ridging is present
across the midsection of the US. with WNW flow into AL. The ridge
will become more amplified on Mon, as a low digs in the SW US with
flow becoming NW into C AL. We could have some scattered waves of
cirrus through this flow through the short term, but overall
moisture will be limited. Our low level flow will start today as
SW around the ridge but become more SRLY by Mon afternoon as the
ridge center shifts. This will result in warmer daytime
temperatures by a degree or so each day but more noticable with
milder lows and dew points rising a tad. Otherwise, overall
pleasant rain free weather is expected through the short term.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

An upper-level trough will move from the Central Plains toward the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Southerly flow will
strengthen across our region in advance of this system, and we can
expect warm and somewhat breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon.
Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
trailing cold front approaches from the northwest. As the southern
end of the front loses upper-level support, the front should
weaken and decrease in forward speed. The southern extent of rain
chances may be limited to the northern half of the forecast area
on Wednesday.

There appears to be a break in the rain chances for Thursday
before another upper-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase on Friday as a front approaches from the
northwest. This activity may linger into Saturday, but model
consistency and agreement is rather poor on day 7.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. An upper-level
disturbance is bringing mid to high scattered clouds to much of
the area today and tonight but dry conditions will persist. Expect
only a few mid to upper level clouds during the day Monday. Low-
level winds will be from the southwest through this cycle with
speeds from 6-9 kts today, 1-3 kts tonight and 4-7 kts on Monday.
There may be some brief patchy fog across portions of the
southwest and far south before sunrise Monday, but potential is
too low to include at any terminal for this issuance.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will be in place through early next week, with rain
chances returning Tuesday evening. Minimum RH values will be in
the 30-40 percent range today and Monday. 20 ft winds become
southwesterly today at 6-12 mph and diminish to 5-8 mph on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    53  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  55  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      54  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      55  83  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  53  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        54  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
