212
FXUS64 KBMX 290538
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

A fairly dry day on tap today, at least through 1 PM. Rain chances
will be on the increase in the far west during the afternoon as
the line of showers and storms begins to approach the area. A
majority of the models now indicate the initial area of storms
will slide to our southwest, just clipping our southwestern
counties. These short range models show the line reaching the
MS/AL state line by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of
the northern portion of the line towards late afternoon as the
low level jet decreases. There may be a 3-6 hour window, in the
early evening with minimal coverage of convection over west
Alabama, then additional convection develops over MS as the mid
level trof axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates.
The better coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama
tonight into Tuesday morning as mid-level lapse rates increase
and a low level jet develops. Some stronger storms are possible
through Tuesday morning as MUCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. The
activity will continue to shift east Alabama through Tuesday
morning, with the rain ending across east Alabama by late
afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridging will take place over
Alabama with lower rain chances and warmer daytime temperatures.
By the end of the week, an upper trof will pass to the north of
Alabama, and rain chances will increase over central Alabama.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 15 to 18 hours as a cold
front begins to approach the area. Showers and storms will be
possible at TCL as early as 21z but most likely after 00z. BHM and
EET as early 00z, but most likely after 3z. A shower may be around
ASN and ANB as well after 3z, but chances remain too low at this
time to include. For MGM and TOI, we will increasing clouds and
perhaps a shower, but again chances are too low to include at this
time.

NOTE: KASN continues to have issues with report the sky
conditions, so added AMD LTD TO WIND VIS in the TAF.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well
above critical values. Rain chances increase this afternoon
through Tuesday. Dry conditions return on Wednesday with RH values
dropping back into the 30s and low 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  61  79  56 /  10  80  70  10
Anniston    82  62  80  59 /  10  70  70  10
Birmingham  83  63  80  60 /  20  80  60   0
Tuscaloosa  83  63  82  61 /  50  80  50   0
Calera      82  62  80  61 /  20  80  60   0
Auburn      81  64  80  63 /  10  30  50  10
Montgomery  84  64  82  63 /  10  50  50  10
Troy        84  63  82  63 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16