Text Products for AFD Issued by BRO

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 171726 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Due to the development of showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Lower Rio Grande Valley, PoPs for the area have been increased
to indicate that isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface high pressure will continue over the Northwest Gulf. The
mid-level pattern will feature southwest flow influenced by an
upstream short wave trough over Northwest Mexico. The H5 pattern
will get a bit more chaotic or unstable over the Sierra Madre
Range this afternoon. Convection is seen to blossom over the
Sierra Madre Oriental front range this evening. The Day 1 SPC
general thunderstorm outlook area extends to just north of the RGV
Plains. Nevertheless, have included a small mention area of
thunderstorms over Zapata County this evening in case any storms
drift toward/into that area. Otherwise, we`ll see mostly cloudy
skies today with modest southeast winds and warm weather (high
temperatures ranging from the upper 80s east to the upper 90s
west. Rip current risk is pegged at moderate today.

Assuming little convective activity occurs overt the Upper RGV,
Wednesday night should be quiet. Patchy fog over the marine areas
and eastern sections show up in the forecast overnight. This looks
reasonable with winds on the light side. Skies will be mostly cloud
with above average low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday will again be warm under partly to mostly cloudy skies with
above average high temperatures in the same range as will be seen
today. The SPC Day outlook includes the entire CWA in the general
thunderstorm outlook area. This extension of the outlook area
southward looks like it is due to the convection developing along a
cold front sagging south late in the day and Thursday night. Not
thinking we will see much activity Thursday form the tail end of
that front per se. The Sierra Madre front range also looks like it
will again become active Thursday evening into Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A near zonal flow aloft combined with a series of embedded shortwaves
and ample instability may trigger some convection over the Sierra
Madre Oriental Thursday night and again Friday night. The NBM
keeps rain chances north and west of the CWA for Thursday night
and has low end convective chances Friday night across portions of
the Rio Grande Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
placed all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm outlook
from Thursday night through Friday night.

Aside from the low end thunderstorm threat to the west, not much
else will be going on until the weekend. We will see mostly cloudy
skies at night and a mix of clouds and sun during the day. Lows
Thursday night and Friday night will be in the low to mid 70s.
Friday will be above normal with highs ranging from the 80s near the
coast, low to mid 90s farther inland and the upper 90s around Falcon
Lake.

More robust rain and thunderstorm chances are expected over the
weekend with the approach and passage of a mid-level trough and the
associated cold front. There is a moderate chance (40-60 percent)
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning
along the front. Temperature-wise, temperatures will be slightly
above average for Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to the low to
mid 90s. In the wake of the front, temperatures on Sunday will fall
to below normal as cloudy skies prevail with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. On Monday, northeast winds and drier air will push
into Deep South Texas as cooler air filters into the region. Below
normal temperatures are expected on Monday with highs around 80.
Temperatures will rebound and become more seasonable on Tuesday
while remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority of
the TAF cycle at the TAF sites. MFE shows the highest chance of
returning to VFR conditions by the end of the period as the lower
level clouds move out of the region. There is the possibility
that TAF sites could drop to IFR conditions due to lower level
clouds moving in overnight or if an isolated shower or
thunderstorm moves over the site. Southeasterly winds are expected
to continue through the TAF period as well with winds becoming
gusty for BRO and MFE late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Today through Thursday...Generally moderate southeast winds,
possibly becoming fresh at times (Thursday afternoon Laguna Madre),
and moderate seas. Small craft should exercise caution conditions
will be possible at times due to increased winds and slightly higher
seas. High pressure over the Northwest Gulf will be the main feature.

Thursday night through Tuesday...High pressure across the Gulf of
Mexico will support moderate southeast winds and moderate seas
through Saturday. A weak cold front is expected to push through
the lower Texas coastal waters Saturday night to Sunday morning.
In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh northeast winds and
building seas will prevail. Exercise caution conditions are
expected Sunday and Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday night and Sunday. Isolated
showers may linger along the Lower Texas Coast Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise, more favorable conditions are expected Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  74  88  74 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  71  91  71 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  74  93  74 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  74  95  73 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  73  79  73 /  20   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  72  85  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...64-Katz
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
