Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241841
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
241 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Quebec will assure that most areas will
experience moonlit skies tonight with another day of full sunshine
on Monday. The start of the new work week will also mark a period of
notably warmer weather. Temperatures will soar into the 50s for many
areas on Monday with the mercury in the 50s and lower 60s for
Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will then lead to the likelihood
of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moonlit skies will dominate our weather tonight...as a large area of
high pressure will drift across Quebec to the St Lawrence valley.
While it will not be quite as cold as last night...the mercury will
still bottom out WELL BELOW where it should for this time of year...
generally in the teens to a few single digits. Clear skies...light
winds and our receding snow cover will help out with that.

Monday is guaranteed to be a warmer day throughout the region. The
area of Canadian high pressure will drift to extreme eastern Quebec
where its clockwise circulation will direct notably milder into our
area. H85 temps will be some 10 to 15 degrees C higher than those
from today with readings around 6c supporting afternoon max temps of
50 to 55 F for the vast majority of the region. Unfortunately...a
persistent and rather staunch inversion arnd 3kft will prevent full
mixing or else we would be even warmer. Even so... it will be a nice
day to get some outdoor work done.

While Monday night will certainly be pcpn free...it will become
quite windy for some areas. A 50 knot low level jet sandwiched
between the aforementioned sfc high and a deepening storm system
over the Upper Mississippi valley will impinge upon our region. The
bulk of these winds within the warm advective pattern will remain
trapped aloft by the previously discussed inversion...but in the
typical downslope areas...the south to southeast flow could prove to
be an issue. The biggest risk for strong winds will be found between
Lake Erie and the Chautauqua ridge where 50 mph winds will be
possible. A lesser threat will be found across the remaining higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier and on the north facing slopes
of the Tug Hill where gusts could top 40 mph. Funneling down the
Black River valley is another area worth keeping an eye on. It won`t
be nearly as cold Monday night...as mins are only expected to settle
into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the Upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, with the warm conveyor lifting into western
New York. The day starts out dry, but the strength of the low
level inflow will be efficient in transporting moisture into
western New York by Tuesday afternoon, supporting increasing rain
chances west of the Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will
send temperatures well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the
lake plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
surge into the region later Tuesday night, supporting a round of
showers. Overall, the 00Z model suite struggling to bring the
surface based instability axis into western New York, but wouldn`t
completely rule out a rumble of thunder along the cold frontal
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deep trough will be centered across the central US Wednesday. A
low-level jet will be exiting the North Country early Wednesday with
isolated to scattered showers possible. There is good agreement that
a cold front will move across the forecast area with showers
developing, especially east of the Genesee Valley Wednesday. There
could be a second round of showers across far western Ny if the
front aligns with peak heating. Showers will likely end across
western NY Wednesday night with showers potentially lingering east
of Lake Ontario into Thursday.

High pressure will extend into eastern Great Lakes region into
Friday. Mostly dry conditions will continue into the start of the
weekend. Temperatures will start out above normal Wednesday then
become seasonable for late March Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place for tonight and
Monday, although winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given the
easterly flow though, the choppiest conditions will be found in
Canadian waters. However, with more of a strengthening easterly
component to the wind found across central and western Lake Ontario,
near Small Craft conditions will be possible by Monday from near
Sodus Bay westward.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH


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