Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242035
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
435 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region tonight into Tuesday. A
warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Low pressure will approach later Thursday into Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is providing dry weather and clear skies for
Northern Maine. Meanwhile, a departing low pressure system is
bringing a band of high clouds south and east of I-95 and is
helping to produce gusty northwesterly winds. As the high builds
in tonight, winds will subside across the North. Given the cold,
dry air mass in place and fresh snow cover, conditions will be
favorable for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures could
drop below zero in the normally colder northern valleys tonight,
with single digits above zero elsewhere in the North. Thinking
some clouds will hang on in the Bangor region and Downeast,
along with light northerly winds. This will keep lows tonight
mainly in the teens above zero, with 20s at the Downeast coast.
Mostly sunny skies expected across the region Monday, with highs
in the 30s for most places.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure drifts northeast from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
Monday night while still ridging south across the forecast area. At
the same time, an inverted trof will extend northward toward Nova
Scotia from low pressure located well to the south. Expect mostly
clear skies north, mostly clear/partly cloudy Downeast, Monday
night. Moisture expands northward along the inverted trof Tuesday
with increasing clouds across the forecast area. Could also have a
chance of rain mostly during the afternoon. Moisture persists
along the inverted trof Tuesday night while another system
approaches from the west. Rain is likely across the forecast
area Tuesday night, possibly mixed with snow across northern
areas. Moisture persists Wednesday in advance of the system
approaching from the west. Rain is likely again Wednesday,
possibly mixed with snow early across northern areas.
Precipitation totals Wednesday are still uncertain. Near normal,
to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected
Tuesday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The system will begin to cross the region Wednesday night with
precipitation generally in the form of rain. Uncertainty exists
regarding how quickly the system moves east Thursday. Moisture
will also be drawn north from a system in the Mid-Atlantic
region. Rain should persist Thursday, possibly mixing with snow
across northern areas Thursday night. Uncertainty then increases
Friday/Saturday regarding the eventual track of the
Mid-Atlantic system. Precipitation chances Friday/Saturday will
be dependent on the eventual track. Precipitation should
diurnally trend toward a snow/rain mix, or snow, both Friday and
Saturday nights. Otherwise, expect precipitation mostly in the
form of rain. The system should exit across the Maritimes
Sunday. Another system could begin to approach later Sunday.
Above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday/Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals tonight and through the day
Monday. NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 25 kts in the north late
this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight. N-NW winds
5-10 kts at Downeast terminals through tonight. E-NE winds
around 5 kts at Northern terminals and 5-15 kts at Downeast
terminals on Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night...VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain.
North/northeast winds around 10 knots.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Snow and rain likely north, with rain
likely Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
variable..

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. East/northeast winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming variable.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain likely. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain and snow north, with a
chance of rain Downeast. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. North/northwest winds 10 to
15 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning for the outer waters has been
downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory. Wind gusts are currently
well below gale force and will remain there through tonight into
early Monday. Wave heights will remain elevated on the outer
waters tonight and Monday, reaching 6 to 10 feet. A few wind
gusts could approach gale force on the outer waters once again
later on Monday. SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters
tonight and through the day Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are possible Monday night
into Tuesday. Small craft advisory level conditions are then
expected Tuesday night/Wednesday. Rain likely Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/Norcross
Marine...Clark/Norcross


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