Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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213 FXUS62 KCHS 300523 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 123 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak disturbance will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, then a weak cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Overall, the rest of overnight is expected to be quiet as the area remains under the influence of high pressure parked over the Atlantic. Cirrus could start to increase late tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave, and there will be a little stratocumulus forming within a moistening southerly flow. But for the most part we should see mostly clear skies. Model guidance indicates the potential for a corridor of showers to develop offshore within an area of weak convergence, mainly closer to sunrise Tuesday. But none of this will reach land areas. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s far inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper shortwave will pass across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night and provide a bit more active weather than recent days. The first half of Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry then there will be an uptick in convective coverage as we move into the afternoon and persisting through the evening and the overnight. Less coverage is expected on Wednesday as the upper wave shifts offshore, but a surface trough lingering in the vicinity could still trigger isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures generally peak in the mid 80s inland of the beaches, while lows stay in the 60s. Ridge builds over the region on Thursday which will act to limit rain chances. It will be the warmest day of the set, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridge extending across the region on Friday will slide east over the weekend as a weakening shortwave moves in. The surface pattern largely features high pressure although a weak surface trough will linger in the area. These features will support low-end rain chances (generally 20-30%) over the weekend, with the highest coverage inland. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail at all sites through 06Z Wednesday. There will be a few showers off the coast of KJZI during the late morning and early afternoon, as they remain offshore. Upstream from all terminals, scattered SHRA/TSRA will occur during the mid and late afternoon, eventually progressing east tonight. While flight restrictions are possible should any directly impact a terminal, probabilities are too low to show anything in the latest TAFs. All airfields will experience some wind gusts of 15-20 kt in wake of the sea breeze after 18-19Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Overnight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic will extend across the region, maintaining quiet marine conditions across local waters. In general, winds will remain at or below 10-15 kt, slightly veering to south-southeast overnight. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, largest across offshore Georgia waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant feature Tuesday through Saturday, with winds generally no higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A moderate coastal sea breeze will develop each afternoon. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION... MARINE...