Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
000
FXUS61 KCTP 130221
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1021 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-Windy & cooler through Saturday with frequent gusts 40+ mph
-Snow accumulation tonight-Saturday A.M. northern tier mtns
-Showers ending and brisk wind decreasing by Saturday night
-Isolated strong/severe t-storms possible Sunday late afternoon
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Brisk and showery evening across central PA as cold core upper
low lifts towards the Fingerlakes. Cold temps aloft and broad
cyclonic flow aloft will continue to support convective/
diurnally driven terrain enhanced rain showers this evening
through Saturday. A changeover to snow showers is expected
across the NW mtns late this evening with an inch or two of
wet/slushy accumulation forecast in the higher terrain late
tonight into early Saturday morning.
Strong gusty winds continue through Saturday afternoon before
diminishing by Saturday night. We plan to expand the wind
advisory farther to the east to include the central ridge and
valley region. Later shifts may consider covering the rest of
the CWA. The combination of strong wind gusts 40-55 mph and
saturated ground will bring an increased risk of downed trees
and power outages.
Chilly start to the weekend with low temps tonight in the low
30s to mid 40s with a wind chill factor. Highs tomorrow in the
low 40s to mid 50s or 5 to 15 degrees below the historical
average for mid April.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions dry out by Saturday night into early Sunday before
POPs ramp up from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front
pushing southeast from the Great Lakes. SPC has placed all of
CPA in a MRGL risk (level 1 out of 4) with isolated strong to
severe t-storms possible mainly in the late afternoon and
evening. Showers should accompany the front as it sinks
southward across the area later Sunday evening into Sunday night
before pushing south of the MD line by Monday morning. High
pressure builds in for the start of next week bringing fair
weather and pleasant temperatures.
After a noticeable cooldown Fri-Sat, expect a nice warm up to
end the weekend and begin next week with highs rebounding
into the 60-75F range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridging overhead at the start of the long term will break
down as a warm front lifts over the area. Very light/patchy
rain caused by the warm advection will be followed by SCT
SHRA/TSRA as we get into the warm sector for the mid-week
period. Weak CFROPA Wed PM attempts to cool things down, but
weak ridge and some clearing behind it will allow temps to get
just a bit warmer than Wed. A few srn cities may get to 80F. The
real cold front arrives quickly, though, so timing is of
paramount importance to get the temps correct for Fri. Temps may
be falling throughout the day on Fri. Because of timing
differences in the deterministic models, we will hang closer to
a broad brush of 40-50 PoPs from Thurs PM-Fri PM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At 03z, low-end MVFR cigs were found across the western
highlands (BFD, JST) in occasional rain showers, with high-end
MVFR cigs across the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) in scattered
showers. Low-end VFR conds (4-6 kft cigs) were observed across
the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS).
Expect cigs to come down a bit more overnight, with the western
highlands seeing cigs drop to IFR, the central mtns dropping to
low-end MVFR, and the Lower Susq Valley seeing cigs drop to
borderline VFR/MVFR. Scattered rain showers will eventually mix
with or change over to wet snowflakes across the western
highlands, with spotty light rain showers continuing to drift
into the central mtns.
Gusty westerly sfc winds will persist overnight as well. Even
with the sfc winds remaining gusty, there will still be
unidirectional LLWS overnight (especially over the western
highlands and central mtns) thanks to a 45-55 kt westerly wind
just off the sfc.
Gradually improving conds are expected on Saturday, with
lingering shower activity diminishing. BFD and JST should see
cigs rise to MVFR by early aftn, with conds returning to VFR
elsewhere.
Outlook...
Sun...Predominantly VFR, but a chance of late day
showers/storms with brief restrictions.
Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.
Tue night...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.
Wed...Showers/storms and brief restrictions expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>027-033>036-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Evanego