Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222341
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger is expected western zones Sunday afternoon,
  with a fire weather watch in effect.

- Intense south winds are expected western zones Saturday and
  all zones Sunday, with gusts as high as 60 mph.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible east of US 283 Sunday
  afternoon.

- Windy and dramatically colder Monday, with light snow
  and blowing snow possible.

- A hard freeze is expected Tuesday morning, with damage to
  early vegetation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Surface observations at midday showed strong north winds across
SW KS, behind this morning`s cold front, with gusts near 40
mph. Winds will begin diminishing after 4 pm, while trending
northeast. Infrared satellite imagery confirmed a clear sky, and
with cold advection behind the cold front limited, 5 pm
temperatures will range from mid 50s at Hays to mid 60s adjacent
to Oklahoma.

Strong high pressure surface ridging, extending southwest from
the Missouri river valley, will nose into SW KS through
Saturday morning, providing robust radiational cooling.
Increasing midlevel clouds toward sunrise are expected to remain
sparse enough to allow for a freeze at most locations, with
many locations in the upper 20s at 7 am Saturday.

Return flow establishes quickly Saturday, as high pressure
weakens and retreats eastward quickly, and low pressure deepens
to near 995 mb east of Denver by 7 pm. 12z NAM places the
strongest pressure gradient over SW KS around 4 pm, with a mslp
gradient near 12 mb across the CWA. South to southeast winds
will be strongest along and west of US 83 Saturday afternoon,
where gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected. These winds will
only carry limited warm air advection, with easterly components
recirculating some of the retreating cool air. A large
temperature gradient will result Saturday afternoon, ranging
from lower 50s far northeast, to near 70 along the Colorado
border.

Increasing midlevel clouds are expected Saturday night, with
increasing moisture and strong south winds. A pronounced low
level jet is forecast, with 850 mb winds near 60 mph (2k ft
AGL). Strong south winds will continue all night, as the
boundary layer remains at least partially mixed despite
nocturnal timing. The combination of the wind, increasing
moisture, and mid level clouds will deter radiational cooling
strongly. As dewpoints climb into the 40s, temperatures will
remain in the 40s through sunrise Sunday, with many locations
failing to get below 50. Model guidance is suggestive that
warm air advection will ignite elevated showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night, mainly north and east of DDC.
Elevated instability will be modest, with MU CAPE < 500 J/kg,
still some limited lightning seems probable, and any showers
may transfer some of the strong momentum aloft down to the
ground in gusts. Alternatively, warm air advection may manifest
itself as stratus and drizzle as 12z NAM suggests. Either way,
QPF will be limited in scope, confined to the northeast zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A powerful, classic early spring extratropical cyclone will
impact SW KS Sunday and Monday. This storm will have tremendous
wind energy, but the expectation is that precipitation amounts
for much of SW KS will remain limited, and remain zero in many
areas, as the dryslot will dominate. This is to be expected in
March, lots of wind and less water.

Strong shortwave at the base of a longwave trough is forecast to
be over Arizona at 7 am Sunday, and then intensify, becoming
slightly negatively-tilted, as it arrives in SW KS 7 pm Sunday.
Models remain consistent showing a strong cyclone, in the 978-
982 mb range, centered in the vicinity of Syracuse at 7 pm
Sunday. A pronounced dryline will bisect the DDC CWA, from
northwest to southeast, at peak heating Sunday afternoon.
As is typical in March, kinematic and shear parameters will be
strong to intense, but moisture quality will be poor to modest.
A corridor of forced convection is expected to fire along US
283 about 4-5 pm, along the dryline. Model consensus suggests
surface dewpoints in the 50-55 range are realistic ahead of the
dryline, with CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Initial
development in this regime would likely be high based, low
precipitation supercells, quickly growing upscale into a linear
squall line complex, moving rapidly through the northeast zones
through Sunday evening. Some large hail is expected from the
initial storms, but given strong forcing and winds aloft, the
primary risk will quickly transition to strong damaging winds,
given the trend toward linear convection, and given ambient
strong flow being transferred to the ground via convective
outflows. Tornado risk is expected to be limited greatly by the
poor moisture quality and resulting higher LCLs. Precipitation
prospects will diminish rapidly west of the dryline, and added
areas of blowing dust in the southwest zones, where the
strongest southwest winds are expected.

The primary impact on Sunday will be wind. Along with WFO
Wichita, issued a high wind watch for the eastern half of SW KS
for Sunday, where south winds are expected to gust to near 60
mph. Winds will be strongest away from the surface cyclone,
expected to be centered near Hamilton county. As such, the
strongest south winds are expected east of Dodge City, and the
strongest southwest winds are expected near Oklahoma. The high
wind watch will probably need to be expanded to include more
southwest zones, for southwest winds at places such as Elkhart
and Liberal. Gusts near 60 mph are probable on Sunday, producing
areas of blowing dust, difficult travel, and possibly minor
structural damage.

The surface cyclone is expected to be near Stafford county
around midnight, behind which dramatically colder air will surge
south on intense north winds. This is going to be quite a shock,
with models showing 850 mb temperatures in the mid teens C at
7 pm Sunday, crashing to the -4 to -7C range 7 am Monday. After
increasing northwest winds to the 90%ile of the NBM, apparent
temperature/wind chill grids are reduced to the 10-15 degree
range for the Monday morning commute. Models keep 850 mb
temperatures negative all day, with air temperatures struggling
in the 30s through Monday afternoon, with wind chills in the
20s. Scattered snow showers are expected Monday, as the primary
trough aloft passes over SW KS, producing instability with cold
air aloft. Impacts from snow and snow accumulations will be
limited, with forcing waning and moisture limited, not to
mention warm soil temperatures. 12z EPS probability of
snow > 1 inch is only about 30% at DDC, but this does increase
to 60-70% adjacent to Colorado, and along I-70. Any snow that
does fall Monday will be accompanied by northwest winds gusting
30-40 mph, making for a decidedly unpleasant return of winter.

A hard freeze is expected for all zones Tuesday morning that
will cause damage to early vegetation and budding trees. While
there is no strong anticyclone evident Tuesday morning, models
show very cold thermal fields at 850 mb, and 12z EPS probability
of temperatures < 32 is 100% all zones Tuesday morning. NBM
min T grid has been consistent with sunrise temperatures ranging
from 15 northwest to 25 southeast, with a low of about 20 at
DDC.

The remainder of the forecast is dry. Cool air remains
entrenched on Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures well below
normal in the 40s. A rapid warming trend will follow, with
guidance showing strong south winds and afternoon temperatures
in the 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A northeast wind 12 to 16 knots early this evening will quickly
drop off to less than 10 knots, remaining below 10 knots through
the night into early Saturday morning. Wind direction will
continue to veer from east to southeast to south -- remaining
out of the south through the end of this TAF period. Wind speed
will ramp up late morning, peaking low 20s knot sustained with
gusts 30 to 35 knots at times in the afternoon. There is very
low probability of widespread low stratus development (IFR or
worse), so for this TAF cycle, we will keep all terminals DDC,
GCK, HYS, LBL VFR at this time.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Kept the inherited fire weather watch for western zones for
Sunday with no changes. A classic, early spring wildfire
scenario will likely unfold Sunday afternoon, in the warm dry
windy southwest quadrant of the expected strong cyclone. The
strongest southwest winds are expected to be displaced away from
the center of the cyclone, expected to be near Syracuse. As
such, the strongest southwest wind gusts of 50-60 mph are
expected to focus near the Oklahoma border. Minimum relative
humidity in the current forecast for these southwest zones is
at 15-20%, but model guidance is almost always not dry enough
in these situations. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged
Sunday afternoon, especially west of US 283, and fire managers
and crews in the field should prepare for possible wildfire
operations Sunday afternoon/evening. An intense cold front will
bring an abrupt north wind shift Sunday evening, which will be
critical for any ongoing fires.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Turner


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