Text Products for AFD Issued by DVN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220557
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost potential tonight, especially in valleys/low lying
  areas.

- Active pattern developing with additional rounds of rain and
  thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday and late week through next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tonight, clear skies are expected as surface high pressure
slides to our south. Winds will turn light and shift
from the south/southwest generally 4-8 kts with weak warm
advection commencing. This should result in lows not as
cold as last night, with temperatures mostly in the range of
32-37F. Freeze conditions look to be largely mitigated
because of this, but not ruled out in the cold drainage/valley
areas where winds likely to remain decoupled beneath a
strong low level inversion. These same areas also are most
favored for frost, but can`t rule out patchy to areas of frost
elsewhere. A full day of solar insolation owing to boundary
layer drying coupled with just enough mixing toward daybreak
could limit frost potential, but too close of call and given
susceptibility of vegetation opted for a frost advisory
areawide.

Tomorrow, we`ll see winds become gusty to from the
south/southwest at 30-40 mph due to an increasing surface
pressure gradient and mixing. These winds will help boost highs
into the 60s areawide despite an increase in high level
cloudiness. Late day we have some small PoPs north/northwest
sections where several CAMs have a signal for a few showers
within WAA and weak PVA. Dry air sub-cloud could limit this
potential to mainly sprinkles if anything.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Precipitation chances (30-60%) will exist Monday night into
Tuesday for showers and possibly a few storms, initially with
a cold frontal passage Monday night. The higher precipitation
chances focus south of I-80 where the better moisture transport
and elevated convergence from the LLJ is noted ahead of an
approaching surface cold front. Shower chances continue on
Tuesday with a stronger mid level shortwave diving down
across the region with an attendant reinforcing surface cold
front. Mixing will lead to another brisk/windy day with gusts
30-40 mph. Proxy model soundings show nice inverted V type
profiles sub-cloud, thus can`t rule out the potential for
localized stronger gusts with any showers.

Beyond, the medium range model guidance continues to show a
more active pattern developing by late next week through next
weekend. The leading shortwave ejects out at the end of
the week, with a more negative tilt while an associated
Colorado lows lifts northward into the Upper Midwest.
SPC has maintained the 15% risk for severe weather on Friday
across our area. Certainly the main ingredients of
strong synoptic scale lift, left exit region of the
upper jet and moisture point to widespread showers and
storms with the potential for severe weather, but just where
the best severe weather threat exists is a bit early too
tell pending the location of the warm front and better
instability. Nonetheless, this bears watching in the coming
days as the details of exact threats, timing and location
become better defined.

The pattern stays active next weekend and continuing right into
the start of May, as the digging western CONUS trough
eventually lifts out late in the weekend through early
next week. This will foster the potential for rounds of active
storm clusters and heavy rain. To that note, CPC`s risk of
heavy precipitation has a slight risk encompassing the whole
area April 27-May 3, with a moderate risk across much of
Missouri that comes right up to our southern service area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high clouds
begin to overspread the area. Winds will again be gusty this
afternoon with some gusts to near 30 kts. These winds will stay
up late in the period as well. There is a low chance (15%) of
see some rain at DBQ between 00z Tuesday and 06z Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Gibbs
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
