073
ACUS01 KWNS 022007
SWODY1
SPC AC 022005

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TX...

CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.
 The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into
central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts
of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf
Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast
LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining
severe threat is expected to be isolated.

Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas.
The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into
IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor
and an earlier tornado report near Joplin.

Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected
near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and
possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for
more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information
regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley.

..Dean.. 05/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/

...TX...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across
the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending
southward across west TX.  Ample low-level moisture is present to
the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon
heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE
values around 4000 J/kg.  Deep layer flow is not particularly
strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the
setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of
very large hail and damaging winds.  Have upped hail probabilities
in parts of this region.  The cluster of storms may grow upscale
after dark, building southeastward into central TX.

...OK into Western Great Lakes...
A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA.  A large shield of
prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and
eastern IA.  Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of
strong heating will occur this afternoon.  Most CAM solutions
suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this
differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells
capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Confidence in a more
organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this
time.

$$