565
FXUS64 KEPZ 022331
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Very warm temperatures with breezy winds are expected to continue
into the weekend. A storm system will pass north of the region on
Sunday which will increase wind speeds and fire weather concerns.
The region will remain very dry so no rainfall is expected to
accompany this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Currently, zonal flow is taking place aloft, which is allowing
for very dry, warm, and breezy conditions to predominate. Ridging
will build in on Friday which will reinforce the aforementioned
conditions. The dry line is east of our region and will remain
just out of reach for the rest of the forecast period. A couple of
small shortwaves will pass through the region over the next few
days but will allow for a few clouds at best and mostly in higher
elevations. Mainly southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface
will continue for the rest of the forecast period. This will allow
for continued warm air advection which will keep temperatures in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.

An upper level trough will pass north of the region on Sunday and
into Monday. No rain chances are expected with this event. This
will trigger lee cyclogenesis over the Rocky Mountains. However,
the surface low that results will be over the northeastern region
of Colorado, which is not as favorable for winds. Our wind speeds
will still increase (20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph) due to
tighter pressure gradients, but won`t be high enough for any wind
products. The south and southeastern regions will have lighter
winds due to the 700mb jet being situated to our northwest. These
wind speeds combined with the very dry and warm weather will allow
for critical fire weather conditions on Monday and Sunday, which
is the largest concern for this period. Into next week, a second
bout of lee cyclogenesis will result in a weak surface low over
southeastern Colorado. This will keep winds breezy (15-20 mph) for
the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Mainly SKC
expected other than few mid-high clouds. W-SW winds gusting up to
20kts linger early this evening before subsiding to AOB 8kts
overnight. Gusts return tomorrow afternoon to near 20kts from
basically the same direction as today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns for the rest of the week. RH
values will be very low at between 5-10% for the lowlands and
10-15% for higher elevations for the entire period due to
continued southwesterly to westerly flow. High temperatures will
be very warm in the low 90s and upper 80s for the whole period.
Wind speeds will be breezy (10-15mph) for the rest of the week. On
Sunday and into Monday, a Pacific storm system will pass north of
the region which will allow for a low pressure system to develop
over northeastern Colorado. This will increase wind speeds to
around 20-25 mph with gusts of up to 30-35 mph with the southern
regions having lighter winds. Fire weather concerns will become
critical for Sunday and Monday as a result. No rain chances are
expected with this storm system. The next half of next week will
have breezy winds due to a weak low pressure system over
southeastern Colorado that will influence the region. Ventilation
rates will be excellent for the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  84  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               54  88  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    54  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   49  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                48  89  51  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             52  90  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               53  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   56  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  84  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    49  87  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  76  45  76 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                44  74  44  75 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 42  73  44  75 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  46  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                49  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                49  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  77  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   45  80  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  49  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   49  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson