Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170548
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1148 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light afternoon breezes can
be expected through the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
to upper 80s across the lowlands, likely exceeding 90 degrees for
the El Paso area. By the weekend, a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will exist for eastern portions of the forecast
area, mainly focused over eastern Hudspeth and Otero Counties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of the work week.
The strong upper level system that impacted the region yesterday is
well off to our northeast over portions of the Upper Midwest. Zonal
flow and quiet weather has settled in across the Borderland Region
in it`s wake. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes each day through the remainder of the work
week. Afternoon high temperatures will steadily climb each
afternoon, remaining 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average. In
fact, our warmest days will be Thursday and Friday where high
temperatures will likely exceed 90 degrees for the El Paso metro.
By Friday and into the weekend, a frontal boundary will dive south
across the Great Plains and High Plains region, banking up against
the eastern slopes of the Central NM Mountains by Friday
afternoon/evening. This in tandem with an approaching upper level
shortwave will lead to increased chances (20-30 percent PoPs) of
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now,
these low-end rain/storms chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture value will lie.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
VMC through forecast period under light northwest flow aloft.
Surface winds AOB 6 knots overnight, prevailing from the WSW 240-260
at 06-12 knots this afternoon. Skies SKC-FEW250 with greater high
clouds coverage to the southeast over Mexico and S TX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED through the
remainder of the work week. Min RH values will remain below critical
thresholds (<15 percent) across most of the area through Friday.
However, low level winds will be light to low-end breezy through
this period, staying below critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation
rates will be Very Good through Friday.
By the weekend, portions of NMZ113, especially within the Sacramento
Mtns along with eastern Hudspeth County will see an increase in
moisture values as a pseudo dryline will bank up along the
central NM mountain chains. This added moisture will lead to low-
end chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 56 87 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 53 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 48 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 46 82 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 36 60 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 48 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 44 76 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 43 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 43 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 53 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 44 87 45 92 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 51 88 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 51 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 51 87 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 47 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 54 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 43 83 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 86 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 48 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 46 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 41 75 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 40 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 38 70 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 42 77 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 46 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 43 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 38 77 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 41 79 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 43 82 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 45 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 45 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 45 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 46 84 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 47 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice